Shares in orange tree plantation operator Asian Citrus have risen more than one-tenth ahead of Friday's full-year results.
That will be some consolation to long-suffering shareholders who have seen the share price slide from the high eighties to the low twenties as doubts persist that the company may be over-stating its assets, a concern emanating from a single story run by the sort of magazine normally found near the check-out counter in supermarkets.
Seymour Pierce thinks Friday's results will show a strong advance in revenues, up 22% to RMB.1,725m. "The increase is driven by a full year revenue contribution from the fruit processing business, BPG, compared with just 7 months in FY11A [fiscal 2011, actual) and the 12.2% increase in orange production," the broker said.
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"The trading update on July 25th guided to net profit (pre- revaluation of biological assets) being higher than FY11A but not significantly so due to the impact of heavy rainfall in the final quarter of the year necessitating the usage of a higher volume of pesticides and fertilisers to protect the crops," the broker added.
"If there was no increase in net profits, FY12E [fiscal 2012, estimated] EPS pearnings per share] would be RMB0.46, down -13.9% YOY [year-on-year] due to the share dilution from the BPG acquisition," Seymour Pierce continued.
"We would expect management to provide an update on the operations and the impact of continued heavy rain through July and August on the FY13 figures. The actual impact on the winter harvest revenues will not be known until ACHL [Asian Citrus] updates the market on the winter crop and it's pricing in early November," Seymour Pierce analyst Sue Munden said.
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