Waiting For The Day

UK interest rates - at www.moneyweek.com - the best of the international financial media

We've reached a critical point in the UK interest rate debate. After a first half of the year which was characterised by dramatic swings in the market's interest rate expectations, financial markets now believe that the point of MPC action is at hand. The consensus says that the Bank of England will lower the repo rate to 4.50% in August then to 4.25% in November.

Our own view is that we'll still have to wait until November for the first move. The latest views of the MPC will be available on Wednesday with the publication of the minutes of the July policy meeting. Unless these minutes act to reign in market expectations we can probably assume that our timing is wrong and that rates will be lowered a fortnight later.

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