UK Growth Slump Will Hurt Housing Market

UK Growth Slump Will Hurt Housing Market - at www.moneyweek.com - the best of the international financial media

Despite soaring oil prices, the IMF latest world economic outlook projects that world GDP will expand by 4.3% in both 2005 and 2006, well above its long term trend. However, it has also downgraded its forecast for UK GDP growth from 2.6% to 1.9% for 2005. Gordon Brown has therefore reluctantly acknowledged that his forecast for UK GDP growth of 3.0%-3.5% for 2005 will not be met. The always right' Chancellor has had to admit that he was wrong, but he has taken two steps to minimise the embarrassment. He has prepared the markets to expect lower growth and sought to pin the blame for the shortfall on the rise in the oil price.

Clearly, higher oil prices have been a factor behind lower consumer spending, but other influences relate to the delayed effect of previous interest rate increases, a slowing housing market and a rising tax rate. Whilst a high oil price has affected all economies, the UK slowdown has been particularly sharp. The US economy, by way of contrast, was growing strongly prior to the onset of Hurricane Katrina.

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