Volatility tracker funds are not all they seem

The US equity market’s volatility index, the VIX, is trading at its lowest level for two years. That means volatility is likely to increase. So does that mean it's a good time to buy a fund that tracks the VIX? Maybe not, says Paul Amery.

The US equity market's volatility index, the VIX, is trading at its lowest level for two years (see chart). As volatility tends to trade in a range, oscillating between periods of market calm (when the index is low) and moments of crisis (when it spikes), isn't now a good time to buy the VIX via an exchange-traded fund (ETF)?

Not so fast. You can't buy the VIX directly, just as you are not buying actual barrels of crude with an oil ETF. Instead, in both cases you are exposed to indices based on futures contracts. And the problem here is that when the current (or spot') price of equity market volatility, as shown by the VIX, is low (as now), those futures contracts tend to anticipate a rise in volatility.

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Paul Amery

Paul is a multi-award-winning journalist, currently an editor at New Money Review. He has contributed an array of money titles such as MoneyWeek, Financial Times, Financial News, The Times, Investment and Thomson Reuters. Paul is certified in investment management by CFA UK and he can speak more than five languages including English, French, Russian and Ukrainian. On MoneyWeek, Paul writes about funds such as ETFs and the stock market.