Is the global economy really on the mend?

'It seems like eternity since I was last optimistic on the world economy,' says the famously bearish Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach. But now he believes the world has turned a corner and the outlook is brightening. So is he right to be upbeat? Or is the conversion of this most bearish of commentators a warning sign for the rest of us?

The famously bearish Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach now believes the world has turned a corner and the outlook is brightening. So why the change of heart? And is he right to be upbeat? Or is the conversion of this most bearish of commentators a warning sign for the rest of us? Make up your own mind by reading his latest thoughts on the global economy below...

It seems like eternity since I was last optimistic on the world economy. It was back in 1999 when I argued that "Global Healing" would allow the world to make a stunning comeback from the ravages of the worst financial crisis in 60 years. My enthusiasm was short-lived, however, as the cure led to the mother of all liquidity cycles, multiple asset bubbles, and an unprecedented build-up of global imbalances. While an unbalanced world has yet to shake its hangover from global healing, I must confess that I am now feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

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Contributor

Stephen Samuel Roach is an American economist. He serves as a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at the Yale School of Management. He was formerly chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and chief economist at Morgan Stanley, the New York City-based investment bank. He is the author of several books including Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives and Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.