How long can the global downturn last?

The global economy's downturn is barely a year old and everyone would like to know how long and how deep it will be. The one thing that is clear is that it won't be a short and mild recession.

The downturn in the global economy is now 11 months old, if one takes the subprime crisis of August 2007 as the starting point. It has spread like the forest fires in California, establishing itself in one area after another, putting out tongues of fire that extend the area of the fires, always a step ahead of the firefighters.

The housing and mortgage crisis is far from having burnt itself out. The oil price crisis also started in August 2007, when the oil price was only $70 per barrel - half what it now is. The price of other commodities, particularly foodstuffs, has moved with the price of oil. Equity markets behaved as though they were immune from the recession. That pretense lasted until last October.

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William Rees-Mogg was Editor of The Times from 1967 to 1981. He served as High Sheriff of Somerset and was Chairman of the Arts Council of Great Britain. He was the father of the politicians Sir Jacob and Annunziata Rees-Mogg.