Most relatively well-off people in Scotland are anti-independence. They are perfectly happy in the union, they think it is better for their businesses for them to stay in the union, and like most people, they hate uncertainty.No one wants to vote for something when they have no idea what they will get (currency, tax rates, defence, Europe, monetary policy?). But there's a hard core of the rich and influential who are all for it.
Ask them why and they will tell you that the UK is a disaster in the making. It has a huge and unsustainable debt and no real plans to cut it. It has an utterly out of control welfare system. It has a disgracefully bad education system. And it is becoming increasingly and unpleasantly unequal.They want to live somewhere better. And they reckon that a massive social and financial transformation is more likely to take place in a country with a tiny population such as Scotland than a huge one such as the UK.
I like this view. Regular readers will know that we aren't exactly blind to the deficiencies of the UK and its economy here at MoneyWeek. But there's a problem with making any assumptions that voting for independence would be to vote for real and good change.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Right now, Scotland has all the problems of the UK and then some (a huge welfare state hamstrung by unaffordable health and pension obligations, high youth unemployment, inadequate education system etc). So, it makes sense that anyone pushing for independence should be, as Scottish journalist Hamish Macdonell puts it, leading a crusade "to create a completely new country".
Alex Salmond could suggest a way to completely restructure the welfare state, to recognise and deal with the massive financial threat that is pension liabilities, to use oil revenues to create a sovereign wealth fund and to reform the tax system (he could dump all taxes in favour of a location value tax perhaps!) for starters. But he hasn't done any of those things; something that leaves most of Scotland with the vague idea that an independent Scotland would be just like today's Scotland, just with higher taxes. That's a shame and also a major reason why only 28% of people currently say they plan to vote to break up Britain.
-
UK-US trade deal announced: US cuts tariffs on UK car imports to 10%Keir Starmer and Donald Trump have announced a UK-US trade deal, but the US president has refused to lift baseline tariffs on most UK goods. What does it mean for the UK?
-
How to use mid-caps to diversify from the USMedium sized companies are overlooked by investors but could offer an attractive ‘sweet spot’. We consider the case for mid-caps amid market volatility.
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highlyOpinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else isOpinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflationOpinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky highOpinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it isOpinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
