Could we see a rally in the euro?

On Monday, I noted that the euro’s sharp rally off the early October 1.32 low had taken the market to significant chart and Fibonacci resistance.

Below, you’ll find the long-term daily chart of the euro vs the US dollar giving us the big picture.

The horizontal line at the 1.39 level represents solid support/resistance. Note, the line goes back to January. Since the summer, this line has held – until the support gave way in early September, when the line became resistance to the rallies.

This line of resistance was challenged on Monday again – and it held.

EUR/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

Note also that the 1.39 level is near the Fibonacci 50% retrace level – another line of resistance – making this area a very formidable barrier to further rallies.

In addition, this latest rally has carried the momentum reading into very overbought territory – as marked by the purple box.

The odds heavily favoured a top for this rally in the 1.39 area.

Trader tip: When so many elements come together, as here, selling into the rally is actually a low-risk trade. There are no guarantees, of course, but protective stops can be set quite tightly in these situations.

New tramlines offer tremendous shorting opportunities

On Monday, I had a ‘satellite’ tramline, but now I can draw in a better-fitting set:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The upper one looks better, and so does the middle one – and just admire the two ‘kisses’ as the market came back to the tramline underside (marked with yellow arrows).

These points were terrific shorting opportunities – again affording a low-risk (tight stop) strategy.

With the two tramlines in place, I can now draw a lower equidistant tramline.

Following the second kiss, the market experienced a ‘scalded cat bounce’, thus giving me confidence in my short trade.

Trader tip: If trading a tramline ‘kiss’, I always look for a sharp move away from the tramline (the scalded cat bounce), as it usually means that my first target will be my lower tramline.

Sure enough, the market dropped right to my lower tramline yesterday (marked by green arrow). That was very pretty – and a place to take profits on the short trades.

But with volatility already high, the market bounced sharply, but then zagged back down to touch the lower tramline – and overshot it somewhat.

Trading here certainly requires nimble fingers on the mouse!

But where might the euro go now?

Since Monday, the market has traded in a consolidation zone:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

We have made lower highs since Monday, so let’s see if I can draw in some down-sloping tramlines:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

My upper tramline is pretty good, and so is my lower tramline. I like particularly the touch-point highs to the left of the chart.

This morning, the market rallied up to the upper tramline and is currently in the process of easing back down off it.

Since the market overwhelmingly expects the euro to decline, and because I am generally a contrarian trader, I am on the lookout for reasons why the euro can rally – to confuse the majority.

But let’s see what the market thinks. Here is the latest Commitments of Traders report.

Long Short 
Hedge funds 17,000 91,000
Small traders 35,000 62,000
Total 52,000 52,000 153,000
Trade (banks, etc) 170,000 69,000

Speculators, by a 3:1 majority, expect the euro to fall.

Remember the old market adage: “When something appears obvious to the majority, it is obviously wrong”. But timing is everything.

I would say that if the market can rally past my upper tramline, that should propel it much higher – towards the huge 1.39 resistance I have mentioned, perhaps – and right through it?

This is an intriguing thought. That would place my original 1.40 Fibonacci target in the frame – and set the 1.39 level as support.

But if not, my support level at the 1.3650 area would be worth watching. Breaking that would set the market back on the downward tack.

Meanwhile, the market will probably trade within its recent range until some market event occurs – and that could happen at any time.

Prudence dictates that because the weekend could be a market-changer, evening up positions before today’s close is the wisest strategy.

• If you’re a new reader, or need a reminder about some of the methods I refer to in my trades, then do have a look at my introductory videos:

The essentials of tramline trading

Advanced tramline trading

An introduction to Elliott wave theory

Trading with Fibonacci levels

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