Why I’m looking for opportunities to go short

With the euro summit announcement now out of the way – but with the awkward details yet to emerge – the vigorous rallies in all three of my markets have reached important milestones.

I thought I would briefly set out my trading ideas today with a fuller email tomorrow on one of them.

I never cease to be amazed at how often the Fibonacci levels (available on all spread betting platforms) act as support and resistance.

If you are new to trading or wish to have a refresher, see my video tutorial on this topic.

And now, in all three markets, the rallies have carried to significant Fibonacci levels, more or less at the same time, thus illustrating how connected the markets are – connected by waves of liquidity.

There was a time when gold moved opposite to stocks, but not today.

Here are the charts of gold, euro and the Dow as of this morning:


Gold spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The euro:

EUR/USD spread betting chart 

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The Dow:

Dow Jones spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

In yesterday’s post. I showed that gold had hit the 50% retrace level. And this morning, the 2/3 level in the Dow and the 62% level in the euro have been hit.

Isn’t that pretty?

Also, perhaps co-incidentally, the Dow and the euro have reached round-number levels (12,000 in the Dow and 1.40 in the euro) this morning.

What now?

Now, with expectations high that the euro crisis has been solved, sentiment has gone from being ultra-negative a month ago to very bullish today. Also, I have noted that bullish articles on stocks and the euro have mushroomed recently, so I am looking for tops.

As you know, I have been deeply suspicious of these rallies, as they have been built largely on hope. The ‘real’ economies continue to have problems and at some stage, there has to be a reckoning.

Either growth will take off, thus justifying stocks valuations, or the market will re-adjust to reality.

As a trader, I see very overbought charts, and am waiting for my tramline, Fibonacci, and Elliott wave methods to give me reliable trading opportunities – and I still favour the short side!

• If you’re a new reader, or need a reminder about some of the methods I refer to in my trades, then do have a look at my introductory videos:

The essentials of tramline trading

Advanced tramline trading

An introduction to Elliott wave theory

Trading with Fibonacci levels

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