The rise and fall of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's ruthless dictator

Almost exactly a year ago, Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores arrived in triumph at Venezuela’s National Assembly in Caracas for his third presidential swearing-in ceremony. After being plucked from their beds by US commandos, and deposited in one of New York’s toughest jails, they will have plenty of time to ponder the difference 12 months can make. Yet Maduro “put on a remarkable display of insouciance” right until the last, says The Times. As US military forces assembled off the coast, he donned a sombrero and was seen dancing on stage with supporters and attending Christmas tree lightings.

For all his apparent buffoonery, Maduro, 63, is “known to be a cunning and ruthless operator” who relished “playing the role of David to the US Goliath”, says the Financial Times. Until now, he’s always been a survivor. In 2018 he dodged a drone attack at a military parade; in 2020 he withstood a botched mercenary incursion. Maduro had an unlikely rise to power, assuming “the revolutionary mantle” of his mentor, the leftist strongman Hugo Chavez, following his death from cancer in 2013.

But against predictions, he hung on to power – even as Venezuela’s economy collapsed under his regime’s mismanagement – by viciously crushing dissent, subordinating courts and freely dispensing patronage to consolidate his power. Elections were held, notes The Times, “but outcomes were rarely in doubt”. Under Maduro’s rule, Venezuela – which has the world’s biggest proven oil reserves – suffered one of the stiffest contractions ever suffered by an economy, anywhere. Since 2013, GDP has shrunk by almost 80% and corruption, trafficking and violent crime has flourished amid a growing scarcity of basic commodities. The result has been an “unprecedented” exodus. As many as eight million Venezuelans, or a third of the population, have fled the country, according to UN figures.

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Who is Nicolás Maduro?

Born in 1962, and raised in El Valle, a blue-collar suburb of Caracas, Maduro was “steeped in left-wing activism from an early age”, says The Telegraph. He began his political career as president of his high school’s student union – though records show he never graduated. A keen baseball player, Maduro travelled to Cuba in 1986 “to receive a year of ideologic instruction”, notes Fortune, eventually returning to Caracas to work as a bus driver and union activist. He became a Chavez supporter after “El Comandante” was jailed for a failed coup in 1992, and rose rapidly through the ranks of the ruling party when Chavez took office in 1999. Nonetheless, the latter’s deathbed anointment of Maduro as his successor “stunned supporters and detractors alike”.

Soon after Chavez’s death, Maduro went on TV to claim the spirit of the late revolutionary had “reappeared to him as a tiny songbird” while he was praying in a chapel, says The Telegraph. This was in marked contrast to the reality of the “heavily armed militias of motorcycle-riding Chavista supporters” he deployed “to terrorise opponents”. The US alleges that Maduro and his wife Cilia – whom he called the “first combatant” instead of first lady – were involved in a drug-trafficking network run by Venezuelan military officials called the “Cartel de los Soles” (Cartel of the Suns), responsible for transporting thousands of tons of cocaine into the US.

Most Venezuelans are rejoicing at the dictator’s removal even as they fear what might happen next. For Maduro, the future looks bleak – he will “soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil”, said attorney-general Pam Bondi, though Maduro is a man who is always thinking of how to get what he wants out of any situation, says one former associate. Right now, that looks quite a challenge.

What does this mean for Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado?

With Nicolás Maduro deposed, this “should be María Corina Machado’s moment”, says the Financial Times. But Venezuela’s main opposition leader, who has been living in hiding for many years, faced difficult choices. Having left the country to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo in December, should she return to her homeland? Or call her supporters onto the streets to push for regime change?

Machado, 58, has been on a “roller coaster”. An industrial engineer from Caracas, her political career peaked with a resounding victory in the opposition’s primary election in 2023. A subsequent ban on holding public office forced a retreat into hiding. She then won the Nobel Peace Prize, only to hit a new low with the “humiliation” of a snub from Donald Trump. Despite her warm comments about the US president and his actions in her country, Trump decided she lacked sufficient “support or respect” in Venezuela to be the leader. Trump is instead working with Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, who is now Venezuela’s acting president.

The reason for the snub, according to The Wall Street Journal, is that Trump was warned by CIA analysts that Machado, and her presidential candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, would struggle to gain legitimacy and face resistance from pro-regime security services, drug trafficking networks and political opponents.

The Washington Post thinks the decision may be more personal – Trump is simply irritated she accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. “If she had turned it down and said ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s’, she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” a source told the newspaper.

Trump has talked of a democratic transition after the oil industry has been rebuilt, something he says could take 18 months, but which could take longer, giving the regime opportunities to thwart the opposition or “simply outlast Trump”, says The Economist. The best hope for Machado is to “try to speed things up”.

Machado appeared on Fox News on 5 January and thanked Trump for his “courageous actions”, promising she could turn Venezuela into an energy hub, “suggesting sweet talk is still her method”. “Machado has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead.”

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