There are several reasons to be "a bit more positive" about the economic outlook than there were a few months ago, says Feras Al-Chalabi, manager of CF Odey Continental European fund. Central banks are cutting rates, mortgage costs are falling, and on 8.5 times trailing earnings, equities are trading at levels not seen since the early 1980s.
"What stops me from being unbridledly bullish, though, is that this is a consumer-led recession, which tends to be longer and deeper than a cyclical one." More importantly, it is the result of a banking crisis, "which tends to be followed by two years of negative output".
That means European company earnings are likely to fall by 45% this year, he reckons, from their peak in 2007. But markets have recognised this and "valuations have fallen to a level that now discount the fact that we are entering a recessionary period". That's thrown up some interesting plays, including Spanish IT and defence contractor Indra Sistemas, which trades on a forward p/e of 14. He also likes telecoms because "they know what a recession looks like, have had five years of falling prices and the regulator on their back and have learnt how to cut costs". A favourite is Dutch group TPN.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Contact: 020-7208 1400
CF Odey Continental European Fund - top ten holdings
| Name of holding | % of assets |
| CIBAHolding AG | 5.8 |
| Koninklijke Kpn NV | 4.1 |
| Snam Rete Gas | 4.0 |
| Munchener Ruckversicherun GS AG | 3.5 |
| Allianz SE | 3.0 |
| Koninklijke Ahold NV | 3.0 |
| Colruyt SA | 3.0 |
| Zurich Financial Services | 2.9 |
| Swedish Match AB | 2.5 |
| Novo-Nordisk AS | 2.5 |
-
Inheritance tax reforms: government urged to rethink curbs on rural reliefsMPs want the government to delay changes to inheritance rax reliefs for farmers
-
‘I’m among the thousands of millionaires leaving the UK – the new tax rules don’t make sense ’MoneyWeek spoke to a serial entrepreneur who is leaving the UK following the abolition of the non-dom tax status
