The pound looks as sickly as the dollar, if not more so. It's slumped by more than 7% against the euro and 6% against the dollar since the beginning of August, and is at a five-month, trade-weighted low. Britain has indulged in even more "grotesque money-printing antics" than America, says Liam Halligan inThe Sunday Telegraph, with the money supply up by 169% in a single year.
The quantitative easing (QE) programme looks likely to be extended further now that last week's slide in industrial production suggests the recovery is faltering. So interest rates look set to be lower for longer than in other countries engaged in QE, says Peter Garnham in the FT.
That makes the pound even more appealing as a funding currency for the carry trade, which is undermining it further. A budget deficit of 12% also needs to be tackled as this week's sell-off of government assets highlighted which will crimp future growth.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
That also suggests rates will stay low for a long time, says Garnham. The Centre for Economics and Business Research expects them to stay at their current record low of 0.5% for all of next year.
It also sees the pound heading back towards parity with the euro, a view shared by several other forecasters.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at BaslowMoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraudProperty tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
