We’ve a long way to fall yet

A new bull market began in March 2003. Or so most people agree. But a longer-term view suggests that the post-2000 bear market isn’t actually over yet - and won't be for quite a few years.

A new bull market began in March 2003. Or so most people agree. But a longer-term view suggests that the post-2000 bear market isn't actually over yet, even though the S&P marginally eclipsed its 2000 high in 2007 and that won't be over for quite a few years yet.

History shows that stockmarkets meander in long up and down cycles, with long-term, or secular, bull and bear phases lasting around 15 years. These ups and downs are not economic or earnings cycles; the key issue is valuation. A secular bull market sees markets move from very cheap to highly expensive, while in secular bears the opposite occurs: valuations revert to the long-term average and typically fall below it, which paves the way for the next upswing.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
MoneyWeek

MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.