Investment forecasts: a Christmas tradition to avoid

The annual ritual of market forecasts isn’t just useless – it could make your investment decisions worse.

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It's that most wonderful time of the year for analysts: the time when they put out their forecasts for what markets will do over the next 12 months and get treated as if these are a valuable insight into what we can expect.The reality is that even a minute spent studying these reports is a minute wasted. Annual forecasts are not just unreliable they are even more useless than you might expect.

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Cris Sholto Heaton

Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.

Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.

He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.