Betting on politics: some safe Labour bets

published 10 December 2019

Karen Buck, Labour MP for Westminster North

With the general election taking place on Thursday 12 December, I think you should bet on Labour to retain Edinburgh South at 2/7 (78%) with Bet365. While Labour is set to do badly in Scotland, the SNP is unlikely to overturn a majority of 15,514 in a pro-union constituency. I also think you should bet on Labour to retain Birmingham Egbaston at 4/9 (69.2%) with Bet365, especially as it would require a large Conservative swing in an area that narrowly voted to remain in the European Union.

While the Conservatives came within inches of ousting the then-MP Glenda Jackson in 2010, Hampstead and Kilburn is now a safe Labour seat. Given that the area voted heavily to remain in 2016, and the Liberal Democrats are going nowhere, the 1/4 (80%) with Bet365 on Labour looks very good value. Similarly, Westminster North, where Labour MP Karen Buck (pictured) has a majority of 11,512, is another London seat that Labour should retain, so you should take them at 1/6 (85.7%) with Bet365.

I'd also take Paddy Power's 1/5 (83.3%) on Labour to retain Bristol West. While the Lib Dems won this seat in 2005 and again in 2010, Labour's Thangam Debbonaire captured it in 2015, and then retained it two years later with a majority of more than 37,000 with the Lib Dems behind both the Greens and the Conservatives. Finally, I'd bet on Labour to win Leicester East at 2/9 (81.8%) with Bet365 as this is one of the safest seats in the country with a majority of 22,428.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri