Betting on politics: the odds on Trump being impeached

Punters have swung firmly behind the idea of Donald Trump being impeached by at least one House of Congress. Matthew Partridge looks into the latest odds.

Donald Trump © Evan Vucci/AP/Shutterstock

Punters had thought it a long shot, but now bettors have swung firmly behind the idea of Donald Trump being impeached by at least one House of Congress. With £578,000 matched on Betfair, the odds of Trump being impeached have shrunk to 1.53 (65.3%). Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering similar odds of 1/2 (66%), However, bettors still think that Trump will serve out his full term in office you can get odds of 4.4 (22.7%) on him leaving before the end of the first term.

Full impeachment still seems unlikely because it requires support from two-thirds of the Senate, which means getting Republican senators to support it. Many of them may be privately happy to see the back of Trump, but few will risk the wrath of Republican voters unless there is some new shocking revelation. It's easier for the Democrats to win a vote in the House of Representatives as they need a simple majority.

Of course, just because they could win it doesn't mean they will actually manage to do so. House speaker Nancy Pelosi is clearly worried about the potential public backlash, especially with the presidential election just over a year away. Still, on balance I would take Betfair's odds on impeachment by the House (but not the bet on him leaving office early). Even if there are no additional revelations, the Democrats have come too far to stop. Indeed, if they don't end up impeaching Trump, he will use this as evidence for his claim that the allegations were nothing more than "fake news" all along.

Recommended

How to prepare your business for Brexit
Small business

How to prepare your business for Brexit

Whether we have a Brexit deal or not, new procedures for importers and exporters will apply from 1 January. Get your business ready now.
27 Nov 2020
Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?
Brexit

Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?

With Brexit now done, the trade talks can begin. But who wants what from a UK/EU trade deal, and how likely are they to get it?
3 Feb 2020
Trading: catch this coach company
Trading

Trading: catch this coach company

Bus and coach operator National Express has expanded into promising markets abroad – and it looks cheap
28 Jan 2020
DoorDash won't deliver for investors. Here's how to short it
Trading

DoorDash won't deliver for investors. Here's how to short it

American food-delivery app DoorDash can’t even make money in a pandemic. Matthew Partridge explains the best way to short it.
20 Jan 2021

Most Popular

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
Inflation is the easiest way out of this – just don’t expect politicians to admit it
Inflation

Inflation is the easiest way out of this – just don’t expect politicians to admit it

The UK government borrowed £34.1bn in December, a record amount for that month. Britain's debt pile now amounts to 100% of GDP. How are we going to pa…
22 Jan 2021
When will the US stockmarket bubble burst?
US stockmarkets

When will the US stockmarket bubble burst?

With US stocks more expensive than before the Wall Street crash of 1929, there are growing signs of “mania”. But what will push markets over the edge?
22 Jan 2021