Betting on politics: the odds on Trump being impeached
Punters have swung firmly behind the idea of Donald Trump being impeached by at least one House of Congress. Matthew Partridge looks into the latest odds.
Punters had thought it a long shot, but now bettors have swung firmly behind the idea of Donald Trump being impeached by at least one House of Congress. With £578,000 matched on Betfair, the odds of Trump being impeached have shrunk to 1.53 (65.3%). Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering similar odds of 1/2 (66%), However, bettors still think that Trump will serve out his full term in office you can get odds of 4.4 (22.7%) on him leaving before the end of the first term.
Full impeachment still seems unlikely because it requires support from two-thirds of the Senate, which means getting Republican senators to support it. Many of them may be privately happy to see the back of Trump, but few will risk the wrath of Republican voters unless there is some new shocking revelation. It's easier for the Democrats to win a vote in the House of Representatives as they need a simple majority.
Of course, just because they could win it doesn't mean they will actually manage to do so. House speaker Nancy Pelosi is clearly worried about the potential public backlash, especially with the presidential election just over a year away. Still, on balance I would take Betfair's odds on impeachment by the House (but not the bet on him leaving office early). Even if there are no additional revelations, the Democrats have come too far to stop. Indeed, if they don't end up impeaching Trump, he will use this as evidence for his claim that the allegations were nothing more than "fake news" all along.
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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
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