Betting on politics: the odds on Trump being impeached

Punters had thought it a long shot, but now bettors have swung firmly behind the idea of Donald Trump being impeached by at least one House of Congress. With £578,000 matched on Betfair, the odds of Trump being impeached have shrunk to 1.53 (65.3%). Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering similar odds of 1/2 (66%), However, bettors still think that Trump will serve out his full term in office you can get odds of 4.4 (22.7%) on him leaving before the end of the first term.

Full impeachment still seems unlikely because it requires support from two-thirds of the Senate, which means getting Republican senators to support it. Many of them may be privately happy to see the back of Trump, but few will risk the wrath of Republican voters unless there is some new shocking revelation. It's easier for the Democrats to win a vote in the House of Representatives as they need a simple majority.

Of course, just because they could win it doesn't mean they will actually manage to do so. House speaker Nancy Pelosi is clearly worried about the potential public backlash, especially with the presidential election just over a year away. Still, on balance I would take Betfair's odds on impeachment by the House (but not the bet on him leaving office early). Even if there are no additional revelations, the Democrats have come too far to stop. Indeed, if they don't end up impeaching Trump, he will use this as evidence for his claim that the allegations were nothing more than "fake news" all along.

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