Features

Betting on politics: odds on the next president of the USA

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren © Win McNamee/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics. With £5.4m wagered, Betfair still has Donald Trump as the favourite to win the 2020 election at 2.34 (42.7%). Elizabeth Warren (pictured) is the leading Democrat at 4 (25%), more than double the implied chances of Joe Biden at 9.6 (10.4%). Interestingly, Betfair puts the Republicans' chances of winning the White House at nearly even at 2.06 (48.5%).

Betfair punters also remain sceptical about the idea of Trump being prematurely forced out of office. You can still get 4.7 (21.2%) on him leaving before his first term ends and 1.27 (78.7%) against. They also think it very unlikely that he will leave this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. While the odds of him being impeached by at least one House of Congress have shrunken in the past few days, you can still get 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.

I think that punters are greatly over-estimating Trump and the Republican Party's chances of retaining control of the White House next November, though don't bet any more if you followed my previous advice on these markets. The bet on Trump being impeached by the House of Representatives looks interesting, but I would hold off for now until we get a clear idea of what actually went on between him and the Ukrainian president.

Recommended

Latest issue
Investments

Latest issue

Latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine,
16 Sep 2021
Royal Mail will deliver for investors – here's how to play it
Trading

Royal Mail will deliver for investors – here's how to play it

Royal Mail Group has found its feet in the past 18 months and looks cheap. Matthew Partridge looks at how to trade the shares.
14 Sep 2021
Trading: how to cash in on America's hot housing market
Trading

Trading: how to cash in on America's hot housing market

Homebuilder Pultegroup is perfectly placed to cash in on the US housing boom. Matthew Partridge explains how to play it.
18 Aug 2021
I wish I knew what tapering was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask
Too embarrassed to ask

I wish I knew what tapering was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask

Tapering is the reduction in quantitative easing provided by a central bank. But how does it work?
11 Aug 2021

Most Popular

The times may be changing, but don’t change how you invest
Small cap stocks

The times may be changing, but don’t change how you invest

We are living in strange times. But the basics of investing remain the same: buy fairly-priced stocks that can provide an income. And there are few be…
13 Sep 2021
Two shipping funds to buy for steady income
Investment trusts

Two shipping funds to buy for steady income

Returns from owning ships are volatile, but these two investment trusts are trying to make the sector less risky.
7 Sep 2021
Should investors be worried about stagflation?
US Economy

Should investors be worried about stagflation?

The latest US employment data has raised the ugly spectre of “stagflation” – weak growth and high inflation. John Stepek looks at what’s going on and …
6 Sep 2021