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Betting on politics: odds on the next president of the USA

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren © Win McNamee/Getty Images
Elizabeth Warren

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics. With £5.4m wagered, Betfair still has Donald Trump as the favourite to win the 2020 election at 2.34 (42.7%). Elizabeth Warren (pictured) is the leading Democrat at 4 (25%), more than double the implied chances of Joe Biden at 9.6 (10.4%). Interestingly, Betfair puts the Republicans' chances of winning the White House at nearly even at 2.06 (48.5%).

Betfair punters also remain sceptical about the idea of Trump being prematurely forced out of office. You can still get 4.7 (21.2%) on him leaving before his first term ends and 1.27 (78.7%) against. They also think it very unlikely that he will leave this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. While the odds of him being impeached by at least one House of Congress have shrunken in the past few days, you can still get 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.

I think that punters are greatly over-estimating Trump and the Republican Party's chances of retaining control of the White House next November, though don't bet any more if you followed my previous advice on these markets. The bet on Trump being impeached by the House of Representatives looks interesting, but I would hold off for now until we get a clear idea of what actually went on between him and the Ukrainian president.

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