Features

Betting on politics: odds on the next president of the USA

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren © Win McNamee/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics. With £5.4m wagered, Betfair still has Donald Trump as the favourite to win the 2020 election at 2.34 (42.7%). Elizabeth Warren (pictured) is the leading Democrat at 4 (25%), more than double the implied chances of Joe Biden at 9.6 (10.4%). Interestingly, Betfair puts the Republicans' chances of winning the White House at nearly even at 2.06 (48.5%).

Betfair punters also remain sceptical about the idea of Trump being prematurely forced out of office. You can still get 4.7 (21.2%) on him leaving before his first term ends and 1.27 (78.7%) against. They also think it very unlikely that he will leave this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. While the odds of him being impeached by at least one House of Congress have shrunken in the past few days, you can still get 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.

I think that punters are greatly over-estimating Trump and the Republican Party's chances of retaining control of the White House next November, though don't bet any more if you followed my previous advice on these markets. The bet on Trump being impeached by the House of Representatives looks interesting, but I would hold off for now until we get a clear idea of what actually went on between him and the Ukrainian president.

Recommended

Donald Trump’s next moves
Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s next moves

The outgoing US president is deep in debt and he will need new sources of income now that he is out of a job. Don’t expect him to go quietly, says Sim…
28 Nov 2020
Could the spat between the Fed and Trump’s Treasury derail markets?
US Economy

Could the spat between the Fed and Trump’s Treasury derail markets?

America’s central bank seems to have fallen out with the US Treasury department. John Stepek explains what’s going on, and how it could affect the ma…
20 Nov 2020
What the new US president means for your money
Investment strategy

What the new US president means for your money

What does a Joe Biden presidency mean for your portfolio? The close-run election restricts Biden’s agenda – but certain companies will still do better…
12 Nov 2020
The US election shows that what markets really like is certainty
Stockmarkets

The US election shows that what markets really like is certainty

The tight result in the US election shows that political stalemate could well be good for the markets, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
9 Nov 2020

Most Popular

China owns a lot more gold than it’s letting on – and here’s why
Gold

China owns a lot more gold than it’s letting on – and here’s why

In a world awash with money-printing, a currency backed by gold would have great credibility. And China – with designs on the yuan becoming the world’…
21 Apr 2021
“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?
Bitcoin

“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?

Dogecoin – a cryptocurrency created as a joke – has risen by more than 9,000% this year alone. Saloni Sardana looks at how something that began as an …
19 Apr 2021
House prices in the UK are still surging – here’s why it’ll probably continue
Property

House prices in the UK are still surging – here’s why it’ll probably continue

The latest UK house price data shows no letup in the country’s booming property market, with the biggest yearly rise since 2014. And there’s no end in…
22 Apr 2021