Betting on politics: odds on the next president of the USA

published 30 September 2019

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren © Win McNamee/Getty Images — Elizabeth Warren

With impeachment of the US president firmly on the table, now is a good time to take a look at the latest betting markets related to American politics. With £5.4m wagered, Betfair still has Donald Trump as the favourite to win the 2020 election at 2.34 (42.7%). Elizabeth Warren (pictured) is the leading Democrat at 4 (25%), more than double the implied chances of Joe Biden at 9.6 (10.4%). Interestingly, Betfair puts the Republicans' chances of winning the White House at nearly even at 2.06 (48.5%).

Betfair punters also remain sceptical about the idea of Trump being prematurely forced out of office. You can still get 4.7 (21.2%) on him leaving before his first term ends and 1.27 (78.7%) against. They also think it very unlikely that he will leave this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. While the odds of him being impeached by at least one House of Congress have shrunken in the past few days, you can still get 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.

I think that punters are greatly over-estimating Trump and the Republican Party's chances of retaining control of the White House next November, though don't bet any more if you followed my previous advice on these markets. The bet on Trump being impeached by the House of Representatives looks interesting, but I would hold off for now until we get a clear idea of what actually went on between him and the Ukrainian president.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri