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Globalisation is going into reverse
It finally seems to be dawning on investors that globalisation can no longer be taken for granted.
Markets have been experiencing "a collapse of confidence", says Adam Tooze in The New York Times. The main problem is not the economic backdrop, but a deeper realisation. It seems finally to be dawning on investors that globalisation is "no longer supported by the combination of... economic policy and congenial politics" they once took for granted.
World trade volumes have now shrunk for three consecutive quarters, notes Yasemin Engin of Capital Economics, a consultancy. In August, China's exports to the US declined by 16% year-on-year, while imports from America fell by 22%. This year is set to be the worst for trade since 2009.
The end of an era
Yet "from Washington to Buenos Aires", political commitment to open markets is "disintegrating", says Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal. Where the US once supported global institutions such as the World Trade Organisation, now it "leads in crippling them". That has left investors and businesses scrambling to rearrange their portfolios and is "pushing the global economy closer to recession".
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Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Yet even if globalisation is not undone, the new direction of travel is clear. While markets today largely dance to the tune set by Wall Street, decoupling between regions means that future business cycles may become less correlated. That makes geographical diversification more important than ever. Corporate earnings could be another casualty. After years of conquering the world, US companies are now shifting to a "defensive" stance, says Rana Foroohar in the Financial Times. No wonder. As Tooze puts it, the prospect of a world economy divided between a "sclerotic Europe, a nationalist United States and an authoritarian China is a gloomy one". Investors should be prepared.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
