With £604,856 already matched on Betfair, punters clearly think that a general election in Britain will happen sooner rather than later. An election this year is the favourite at odds of 1.53 (65.3%). The other options are 2020 at 3.7 (27%), with 2021 at 36 (2.7%) and 2022 at 17 (5.9%) now seen as longshots. Personally, I'm very happy that I tipped an election in either 2019, 2020 or 2021, back in August 2017.
My take on this is that you can rule out a December election since voters wouldn't take too kindly to an election campaign just before Christmas. And I can't see Boris Johnson surviving as prime minister until the New Year. I therefore suggest that you should bet on an election in either October or November at combined odds of 62%. In this case you should split a £10 betting unit with £5.03 on November and £4.97 on October.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
Should ISA investors be forced to hold UK shares?The UK government would like ISA investors to hold more UK stocks – but many of us are already overexposed
-
Why Scotland's proposed government bonds are a terrible ideaOpinion Politicians in Scotland pushing for “kilts” think it will strengthen the case for independence and boost financial credibility. It's more likely to backfire
