Betting on politics: the odds on the date of a general election

Punters are betting that a general election in Britain will happen sooner rather than later. Matthew Partridge looks at the odds.

Election party rosettes © iStockphotos

(Image credit: Election party rosettes © iStockphotos)

With £604,856 already matched on Betfair, punters clearly think that a general election in Britain will happen sooner rather than later. An election this year is the favourite at odds of 1.53 (65.3%). The other options are 2020 at 3.7 (27%), with 2021 at 36 (2.7%) and 2022 at 17 (5.9%) now seen as longshots. Personally, I'm very happy that I tipped an election in either 2019, 2020 or 2021, back in August 2017.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri