Dark clouds gather over Europe

Earlier this month, many were optimistic about Europe's ability to withstand global storms. But the pan-European Stoxx 600 index has since fallen to late-2005 levels.

Early this month, many were optimistic about Europe's ability to withstand global storms. The IMF expects growth of 1.6% this year after last year's 2.6%. Unemployment fell to a 15-year low in February, and business confidence in Germany, which comprises a third of the eurozone, ticked up. In January, German exports rose by 9% year-on-year, while the increase in the eurozone's annual industrial production growth rate to a two-month high shows that the sector is slowing but "far from collapsing", says Capital Economics. European consumers save 14% of their income, compared to 0% in the US, providing scope for rising consumption to compensate for slower exports as global growth flags.

But the outlook is darkening. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has hit late-2005 levels, with Germany's Dax index down 24% this year as global jitters have intensified. The IMF this week warned Europe of the "economic damage from the financial market crisis", while the ECB's focus is on inflation at a 14-year high of 3.3% as the Fed has slashed rates and sent the euro soaring. It hit $1.59 this week, fuelling concern over the impact on exports and growth; exports comprise 20% of the eurozone economy. The longer we stay at current levels, the more damage there will be; it's only a matter of time," says Holger Schmieding of Bank of America.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
MoneyWeek

MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.