Bond market signals gloom ahead

The bond market has a much better record than the stockmarket of predicting economic downturns. And last week, yields on ten-year US Treasury notes dipped as low as 2.37%.

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US retail sales are robust
(Image credit: 2009 AFP)

May has proved a turbulent month for investors, prompting many to wonder if the US bull market that began in March 2009 the longest on record is coming to an end. Those inclined to take a more negative view on the outlook for equities are pointing to signals coming out of the bond market. When investors are fearful they pile into safe fixed-income assets, such as government bonds, which drives down their yields. When bond prices go up, yields fall.

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Markets editor

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019. 

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere. 

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful. 

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.