Bond market signals gloom ahead
The bond market has a much better record than the stockmarket of predicting economic downturns. And last week, yields on ten-year US Treasury notes dipped as low as 2.37%.
May has proved a turbulent month for investors, prompting many to wonder if the US bull market that began in March 2009 the longest on record is coming to an end. Those inclined to take a more negative view on the outlook for equities are pointing to signals coming out of the bond market. When investors are fearful they pile into safe fixed-income assets, such as government bonds, which drives down their yields. When bond prices go up, yields fall.
Yields on ten-year US Treasury notes dipped as low as 2.37% last week, notes Peter Wells in the Financial Times, close to a 15-month low reached in March. Yields on short-dated three-month bills are higher than those that lock up your money for ten years. Such an "inverted yield curve" has "preceded every recession since World War II". Equity investors should take note, says Komal Sri-Kumar on Bloomberg. "Historically, the bond market has had a better record" than equities of predicting economicperformance.
Bulls will note, however, that the inverted yield curve signal is hardly foolproof, and while the intensifying trade war is certainly a major headwind (see above), there are reasons to hope that this bull market will keep on running, as IG analyst Chris Beauchamp points out in City AM. The US "employment picture, corporate profits and retail sales" all suggest that a recession is still at least "a year away". Indeed, the rush to buy up safe-haven assets could be a sign that the market has not yet peaked. "Money has ... left the US and European equity funds this year," says Jon Sindreu in The Wall Street Journal, even though US first-quarter earnings topped expectations. "If the top of the market is a point of peak optimism" when investors go "all-in", then the most recent highs are "an unlikely candidate".
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and Emerging Markets, where his experience living in Beijing and conversational Chinese prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Tax hikes push wealthy individuals to exit the UK – what are the risks of relocating?
Research suggests a wealth exodus may be taking place due to higher taxes under the Labour government
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Should you buy JPMorgan's top emerging market trust?
The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Trust fund has outperformed its benchmark over the long term and offers good value
By Max King Published