Features

Betting on politics: the contest hots up in Australia

Matthew Partridge looks at some individual seats in the Australian elections that offer value for the punter.

947-Morrison-634

Liberal Craig Kelly

Credit: Richard Milnes / Alamy Stock Photo

Two weeks ago this column looked at the relative performance of the two major Australian political groupings in tomorrow's federal election. I'm now going to look at some individual seats that offer value for the punter. However, you'll have to get a move on Bet365 closes its book tonight. The polls suggest a close contest, but the betting markets seem to disagree, as you can get quite generous odds on what are normally considered to be safe Coalition seats.

For example, at the moment you can get 1/6 (85.7%) on the Coalition retaining control of Aston in Victoria. Since the Liberal party won easily at the last election in 2016, with more than half the votes on the first round and just under 60% on second preferences, the value is in the Coalition winning again. Hughes in New South Wales is another safe seat the Coalition should easily retain, with Liberal Craig Kelly getting 59% of second preference votes in 2016, so I'd take the 1/5 (85.7%) on the Coalition.

Kooyong in Victoria is even more solidly Liberal, as the Liberals managed to get 63% of second preference votes. So, you should definitely snap up Bet 365's offer of 1/5 (85.7%) on the Coalition.Finally, I'll turn my attention to Casey in Victoria. While it is a bit more marginal than the other seats I've mentioned, the Coalition still won it with 56%of second preferences last time, making the2/5 (71.4%) on offergood value.

Recommended

Get set for another debt binge as real interest rates fall
UK Economy

Get set for another debt binge as real interest rates fall

Despite the fuss about rising interest rates, they’re falling in real terms. That will blow up a wild bubble, says Matthew Lynn.
15 May 2022
Interest-rate rises mean more pain for stocks
Stockmarkets

Interest-rate rises mean more pain for stocks

Interest rates are rising around the world as central banks try to get inflation under control. That’s hitting stockmarkets – and there is more pain t…
13 May 2022
High inflation will fade – here’s why
Inflation

High inflation will fade – here’s why

Many people expect high inflation to persist for a long time. But that might not be true, says Max King. Inflation may fall faster than expected – and…
13 May 2022
How to invest in litigation finance – and get returns from bankrolling legal disputes
Share tips

How to invest in litigation finance – and get returns from bankrolling legal disputes

Lawsuits are a trillion-dollar business and litigation-finance firms play a key role in funding claims. The accounting can be complex, but there are o…
12 May 2022

Most Popular

Get set for another debt binge as real interest rates fall
UK Economy

Get set for another debt binge as real interest rates fall

Despite the fuss about rising interest rates, they’re falling in real terms. That will blow up a wild bubble, says Matthew Lynn.
15 May 2022
High inflation will fade – here’s why
Inflation

High inflation will fade – here’s why

Many people expect high inflation to persist for a long time. But that might not be true, says Max King. Inflation may fall faster than expected – and…
13 May 2022
What the Ukraine crisis might mean for ESG investing
Advertisement Feature

What the Ukraine crisis might mean for ESG investing

The Ukraine crisis has brought many of the issues around ESG investing into sharper focus. Where does the sector go from here?
3 May 2022