Features

Betting on politics: the contest hots up in Australia

Matthew Partridge looks at some individual seats in the Australian elections that offer value for the punter.

947-Morrison-634

Two weeks ago this column looked at the relative performance of the two major Australian political groupings in tomorrow's federal election. I'm now going to look at some individual seats that offer value for the punter. However, you'll have to get a move on Bet365 closes its book tonight. The polls suggest a close contest, but the betting markets seem to disagree, as you can get quite generous odds on what are normally considered to be safe Coalition seats.

For example, at the moment you can get 1/6 (85.7%) on the Coalition retaining control of Aston in Victoria. Since the Liberal party won easily at the last election in 2016, with more than half the votes on the first round and just under 60% on second preferences, the value is in the Coalition winning again. Hughes in New South Wales is another safe seat the Coalition should easily retain, with Liberal Craig Kelly getting 59% of second preference votes in 2016, so I'd take the 1/5 (85.7%) on the Coalition.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

Kooyong in Victoria is even more solidly Liberal, as the Liberals managed to get 63% of second preference votes. So, you should definitely snap up Bet 365's offer of 1/5 (85.7%) on the Coalition.Finally, I'll turn my attention to Casey in Victoria. While it is a bit more marginal than the other seats I've mentioned, the Coalition still won it with 56%of second preferences last time, making the2/5 (71.4%) on offergood value.

Advertisement

Recommended

Visit/520181/how-the-fear-of-death-affects-your-investment-process
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Visit/520060/the-good-and-the-bad-investments-of-2010s
Stock markets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Visit/519858/how-long-can-the-good-times-roll
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Visit/504252/brace-yourself-the-global-economy-might-be-healthier-than-it-looks
Economy

Brace yourself – the global economy might be healthier than it looks

Investors have been worried about a global recession since the start of the year. But the latest indicators suggest things might not be so bad. John S…
2 Apr 2019

Most Popular

Visit/investments/stocks-and-shares/600863/sirius-minerals-anglo-american-takeover
Stocks and shares

Do you own shares in Sirius Minerals? Here’s what you need to do now

Mining giant Anglo American has proposed a cash takeover of Yorkshire-based minnow Sirius Minerals. Unhappy shareholders must decide whether to accept…
20 Feb 2020
Visit/investments/commodities/gold/600874/gold-is-at-its-highest-level-in-years-heres-how-to-invest
Gold

Gold is at its highest level in years – here’s how to invest

Gold's rise at a time when the dollar is unnervingly strong isn't unheard of – but it is curious. John Stepek explains what's going on, and what it me…
21 Feb 2020
Visit/currencies/600842/eur-usd-euro-slide-against-us-dollar
Currencies

The euro’s slide against the US dollar looks set to continue

The euro has been in a bear market against the US dollar for two years now. And on a broader scale since 2008. A decline like that is telling us somet…
19 Feb 2020
Visit/investments/commodities/600729/the-rare-earth-metal-that-wont-be-a-secret-for-long
Sponsored

The rare earth metal that won't be a secret for long

SPONSORED CONTENT – You can’t keep a good thing hidden forever; now is the time to consider Pensana Rare Earths and the rare earth metals NdPr.
31 Jan 2020