Socialists win in Spain

But not by enough to form a majority. What next? Matthew Partridge reports.


Snchez: victorious, but still 53 seats short
(Image credit: 2019 Getty Images)

After a campaign dominated by "dire warnings" about national break up and a "return to the dark days of Franco's authoritarianism", Spanish voters responded with one of the highest turnouts since Spain's return to democracy in the 1970s, says Raphael Minder in The New York Times.

The results, a victory for incumbent prime minister Pedro Snchez and his PSOE party, seemed "to confirm their attachment to a left-wing social agenda and to the country's regional diversity". At the same time, the vote gave Vox, an anti-immigration party, its first seats in parliament.

A long road ahead

Still, Snchez has a long road ahead if he wants to govern, says The Times. He emerged as the winner with a "chunky 29% of the vote", but his 123 seats are well short of the 176 seats needed to control parliament. Even forming an alliance with the left-wing Podemos and a Basque party would fall short of a majority. At the same time, an alliance with the centre-right Citizens party (Ciudadanos), which won 57 seats, is difficult because it "fundamentally disagrees" with Snchez's policy of "dialogue and limited co-operation with Catalonia". Snchez may be tempted to form a minority government.

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But such a move would be a "recipe for political instability", says the Financial Times. It would also make it difficult to deal with Spain's "far-reaching" challenges, including its slowing economy, persistent unemployment, tight public finances and the "poisonous impasse in Catalonia following the illegal independence referendum in 2017".

Instead, Snchez and the leader of Ciudadanos should swallow their pride and join forces "for the sake of national stability". Such a coalition "could deliver greater social justice while cracking open vested interests hindering growth and job creation", while moderate concession to Catalan autonomy "might eventually deflate the independence movement".

The horse-trading begins

Overall, "everything seems to indicate that little progress will be made on this front until after the local, regional and European elections of 26 May". There is even the possibility that we could see a repeat of what happened in June 2016, when "Spain was forced to hold an election just six months after the previous one, because of the failure to produce a parliamentary majority".

Dr Matthew Partridge

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri