Features

Betting on politics: the next Lib Dem leader

Vince Cable is to step down as leader of the Liberal Democrats. Matthew Partridge looks at the odds on who will replace him.

939-Swinson-634
Jo Swinson is one favourite to succeed Cable

More than a week ago, the Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable announced that he plans to step down as Lib Dem leader. Even given the ongoing drama around Brexit, and the fact that Cable's plans were known for some time, it was significant how little attention this gathered from the media.

There is an outside chance that the leadership election could be postponed from the provisional date of May due to an early election, a second referendum or the Lib Dems deciding to merge with The Independent Group. Still, both Ladbrokes and Betfair have markets on the outcome. Ladbrokes has Jo Swinson (pictured) as the favourite at evens (50%), followed by Layla Moran at 11/8 (42%), and then Ed Davey at 8/1 (11%) and Tom Brakeat 20/1 (4.7%).

Other candidates include Norman Lamb at 33/1 (3%), Alistair Carmichael and Jamie Stone at 50/1 each (2%) and Tim Farron at 100/1 (1%). Betfair has Swinsonat 2.0 (50%), Moran at 2.6 (38.4%), Davey at 8.0 (12.5%) and Lamb at 14.5 (6.9%).

There seems to be a general feeling within the Lib Dems that it is time for a female leader, which suggests that the betting markets are right that that will either be Swinson or Moran. My guess is that Swinson's involvement with the 2010-2015 coalition, which proved to be disastrous for the Lib Dems, will make it very difficult for theLib Dems to elect her.By contrast, Moran who was elected in 2017 represents a clean break with the past. So I suggest that you go with Betfair's 2.6 on Moran.

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How long can the good times roll?
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
How to prepare your business for Brexit
Small business

How to prepare your business for Brexit

Whether we have a Brexit deal or not, new procedures for importers and exporters will apply from 1 January. Get your business ready now.
27 Nov 2020

Most Popular

The next 20 years: five new technologies on the horizon
Global Economy

The next 20 years: five new technologies on the horizon

What will everyday life be like in two decades’ time? Matthew Partridge peers into his crystal ball.
12 Nov 2020
This week’s rally in value stocks is just the beginning
Value investing

This week’s rally in value stocks is just the beginning

The arrival of a vaccine this week saw huge gains in the markets and investors switching out of big-tech growth stocks and into “value” stocks in more…
13 Nov 2020
Share tips of the week
Share tips

Share tips of the week

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.
13 Nov 2020