Betting on politics: the next Lib Dem leader

Vince Cable is to step down as leader of the Liberal Democrats. Matthew Partridge looks at the odds on who will replace him.

Jo Swinson is one favourite to succeed Cable

2019 Getty Images

More than a week ago, the Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable announced that he plans to step down as Lib Dem leader. Even given the ongoing drama around Brexit, and the fact that Cable's plans were known for some time, it was significant how little attention this gathered from the media.

Advertisement - Article continues below

There is an outside chance that the leadership election could be postponed from the provisional date of May due to an early election, a second referendum or the Lib Dems deciding to merge with The Independent Group. Still, both Ladbrokes and Betfair have markets on the outcome. Ladbrokes has Jo Swinson (pictured) as the favourite at evens (50%), followed by Layla Moran at 11/8 (42%), and then Ed Davey at 8/1 (11%) and Tom Brakeat 20/1 (4.7%).

Other candidates include Norman Lamb at 33/1 (3%), Alistair Carmichael and Jamie Stone at 50/1 each (2%) and Tim Farron at 100/1 (1%). Betfair has Swinsonat 2.0 (50%), Moran at 2.6 (38.4%), Davey at 8.0 (12.5%) and Lamb at 14.5 (6.9%).

There seems to be a general feeling within the Lib Dems that it is time for a female leader, which suggests that the betting markets are right that that will either be Swinson or Moran. My guess is that Swinson's involvement with the 2010-2015 coalition, which proved to be disastrous for the Lib Dems, will make it very difficult for theLib Dems to elect her.By contrast, Moran who was elected in 2017 represents a clean break with the past. So I suggest that you go with Betfair's 2.6 on Moran.



Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly

The political Brexit pantomime aside, Britain is in pretty good shape. With near-record employment, strong wage growth and modest inflation, there is …
17 Oct 2019

Most Popular


House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?

With UK property prices falling for the first time in eight years, are we about to see a house price crash? John Stepek looks at what’s behind the sli…
2 Jul 2020

How can markets hit new record highs when the economy is in such a mess?

Despite the world being in the midst of a global pandemic, America's Nasdaq stock index just hit an all-time high. And it's not the only index on a bu…
3 Jul 2020

The end of the bond bull market and the return of inflation

Central bank stimulus, surging post-lockdown demand and the end of the 40-year bond bull market. It all points to inflation, says John Stepek. Here’s …
30 Jun 2020