Features

Betting on politics: the next Lib Dem leader

Vince Cable is to step down as leader of the Liberal Democrats. Matthew Partridge looks at the odds on who will replace him.

939-Swinson-634

Jo Swinson is one favourite to succeed Cable

More than a week ago, the Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable announced that he plans to step down as Lib Dem leader. Even given the ongoing drama around Brexit, and the fact that Cable's plans were known for some time, it was significant how little attention this gathered from the media.

There is an outside chance that the leadership election could be postponed from the provisional date of May due to an early election, a second referendum or the Lib Dems deciding to merge with The Independent Group. Still, both Ladbrokes and Betfair have markets on the outcome. Ladbrokes has Jo Swinson (pictured) as the favourite at evens (50%), followed by Layla Moran at 11/8 (42%), and then Ed Davey at 8/1 (11%) and Tom Brakeat 20/1 (4.7%).

Other candidates include Norman Lamb at 33/1 (3%), Alistair Carmichael and Jamie Stone at 50/1 each (2%) and Tim Farron at 100/1 (1%). Betfair has Swinsonat 2.0 (50%), Moran at 2.6 (38.4%), Davey at 8.0 (12.5%) and Lamb at 14.5 (6.9%).

There seems to be a general feeling within the Lib Dems that it is time for a female leader, which suggests that the betting markets are right that that will either be Swinson or Moran. My guess is that Swinson's involvement with the 2010-2015 coalition, which proved to be disastrous for the Lib Dems, will make it very difficult for theLib Dems to elect her.By contrast, Moran who was elected in 2017 represents a clean break with the past. So I suggest that you go with Betfair's 2.6 on Moran.

Recommended

Stamp duty holiday extension will keep the house-price party going – for now
Property

Stamp duty holiday extension will keep the house-price party going – for now

The government is to extend to the stamp duty holiday by three months. Good for today’s buyers, says Nicole Garcia Merida, but what happens in June?
26 Feb 2021
The Great Reset: a fresh start or yet another assault on freedom?
Global Economy

The Great Reset: a fresh start or yet another assault on freedom?

The World Economic Forum’s latest big idea is being trumpeted as a new beginning for the global economy. Yet in truth there is nothing new about it – …
26 Feb 2021
23 February 1820: the Cato Street Conspiracy unravels
This day in history

23 February 1820: the Cato Street Conspiracy unravels

The Bow Street Runners burst in on the Cato Street conspirators, frustrating their plans to massacre the entire Cabinet, on this day in 1820.
23 Feb 2021
Four ways to boost Britain’s stricken economy
UK Economy

Four ways to boost Britain’s stricken economy

When lockdowns end, we will need a plan to get our businesses up and running again. Matthew Lynn outlines four urgently needed measures that the gover…
21 Feb 2021

Most Popular

The days when you could get 7% from your bank are long gone – so what do you do?
Bitcoin

The days when you could get 7% from your bank are long gone – so what do you do?

With interest rates at rock bottom for so long, we’ve been forced to move from saving to speculating to earn any sort of return. Dominic Frisby asks w…
24 Feb 2021
Why you should still put money into a cash Isa
Cash ISAs

Why you should still put money into a cash Isa

Interest rates may be lousy, but tax-free saving into a cash Isa is still a good idea.
23 Feb 2021
Are we heading for another bond market tantrum?
Government bonds

Are we heading for another bond market tantrum?

The last time the US central bank tried tightening the purse strings, the bond markets threw a tantrum. With yields now rising, could we be about to s…
25 Feb 2021