Time to return to emerging markets

Emerging markets have been reinvigorated this year, with the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets at a six-and-a-half-month peak and developing-world currencies up against a weaker dollar. And the rally looks set to endure.

939_MW_P04_markets_main

China's consumption will reach today's eurozone levels by 2030

Emerging markets have been reinvigorated this year. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index has returned 9.3% in 2019 and has reached a six-and-a-half-month peak. Developing-world currencies have also risen against a weaker dollar. And the rally looks set to endure now that "the stars have aligned" for emerging-market equities, says Udith Sikand in a Gavekal research note.

One reason for optimism is the US Federal Reserve's decision to put interest-rate rises on hold. That has removed one of last year's major headwinds. When interest rates are rising and the dollar is strong, money tends to flow out of traditionally risky assets, such as emerging markets, and into US securities with rising yields.

A boost from China

Some of the bigger emerging-market economies are looking a bit more energetic in any case. Brazil, for example, is gradually recovering from its 2015-2016 recession. Meanwhile, Russia's GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018. That's despite the fact that analysts at Bloomberg Economics estimate sanctions have knocked 6% off Russia's economy over the past five years. This year the country's currency, the rouble, has been "a stand-out emerging-market performer", says Aaron Saldanha on Reuters. It went up by 8.6%, helped by a 26% rise in oil prices since the start of 2019.

Valuations also point to plenty of further upside. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has a forward price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 12 and "looks cheap compared to its own history", Charles Shriver of T Rowe Price Global told MarketWatch. For now, however, the recovery may be limited to Asia, reckons Sikand. "Most of the upside will be experienced by Chinese equities and by markets closely within China's economic orbit." This includes South Korea and Taiwan. The effect of stimulus on China's construction sector is "likely to be muted", which means that its impact on commodity-driven Latin American markets will be muted too.

The growing middle class

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, China's middle class (those with more than $10,000 of annual disposable income) will rise from 132 million in 2016 to 480 million by 2030, making up over a third of its population. This will raise the country's consumer spending to current eurozone levels.

Recommended

I wish I knew what an emerging market was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask
Too embarrassed to ask

I wish I knew what an emerging market was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask

This week's “too embarrassed to ask” explains what emerging markets are, and why you might want to invest in them.
9 Sep 2020
The Arab Spring ten years on: a revolution that failed to blossom
Global Economy

The Arab Spring ten years on: a revolution that failed to blossom

Ten years ago, the Arab world was rocked by mass protests and popular uprisings that ousted long-reviled dictators. For the most part, the end result …
23 Jan 2021
Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk
Inflation

Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk

With the world’s governments spending money hand over fist, inflation looks certain to take off at some point. But China could change all that. John S…
19 Jan 2021
Why investors should beware of India’s surging stockmarket
Emerging markets

Why investors should beware of India’s surging stockmarket

The BSE Sensex benchmark index has soared by 90% since March, largely driven by foreign investors. But India's bull market is very vulnerable.
15 Jan 2021

Most Popular

The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks
UK stockmarkets

The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks

The FTSE 100 – the dullest index in the world – is about to reinvent itself as a host of new firms list on the market. The change is long overdue, say…
24 Jan 2021
Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting
Oil

Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting

The huge rise in Tesla’s share price means that, by market value, it’s now the sixth-largest company in the US and and the world’s biggest car-maker. …
25 Jan 2021