Betting on politics: when to sit on your hands

It's tempting to place bets on big political events, says Matthew Partridge. But sometimes the odds just aren't good enough.

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Sometimes it's better to watch from the sidelines

The market on whether Britain will leave the European Union on29 March is currently Betfair's biggest, with £2.9m already wagered. Until the end of lastyear punters were predicting that we would leave as planned, but Prime Minister Theresa May's suggestion that MPs will get an opportunity to vote on whether to extend Article 50 has meant that the chances of a 29 March exit have drifted out even further to 6.2 (16.1%).

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri