Ignore stocks’ January indicator

There is an adage that “as January goes, so does the year”. But data shows January’s market performance doesn’t actually have predictive power.

There is an adage that "as January goes, so does the year", says Tom Stevenson in The Daily Telegraph. But data shows January's market performance doesn't actually have predictive power. Between 1984 and 2018, the market rose in January on 19 occasions, and continued to rise 15 times.

But on the 16 occasions when the market fell in January, stock still rose throughout the year ten times. "So, the bottom line seems to be that most of the time the market rises." If you need "midwinter cheer, it's the market's... valuation" you should be eyeing up.

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Marina Gerner is an award-winning journalist and columnist who has written for the Financial Times, the Times Literary Supplement, the Economist, The Guardian and Standpoint magazine in the UK; the New York Observer in the US; and die Bild and Frankfurter Rundschau in Germany.

Marina is also an adjunct professor at the NYU Stern School of Business at their London campus, and has a PhD from the London School of Economics.

Her first book, The Vagina Business, deals with the potential of “femtech” to transform women’s lives, and will be published by Icon Books in September 2024.

Marina is trilingual and lives in London.