Features

Betting on politics: Denmark's general election

Denmark is holding one of the major forthcoming European elections of next year. Matthew Partridge looks at the bookies' favourites.

927-Rasmussen-634

Can Lars Lkke Rasmussen hold on?

One of the major forthcoming European elections next year is the general election in Denmark, which will have to be held by 17 June. At the moment most people expect the Social Democrats to do well, and Paddy Power has them as clear favourites to win most seats, at 1/5 (83.3%).

It also thinks that the current prime minister, Lars Lkke Rasmussen of the Danish Liberal Party, is the odds-on favourite to win, and it is quoting1/3 (75%) on him staying in power.

Despite the short odds, I think you should take the bet on the Social Democrats getting the most seats. Since Denmark uses a form of proportional representation, the party that gets the most votes nationally will also get the largest number of seats. Over the past few years the opinion polls have been extremely stable, giving the Social Democrats consistent leads of 5%-10% over the other two parties, the far-right People's Party and the centre-right Liberals.

I'm sceptical about Rasmussen retaining power, however. With the three main parties getting only two-thirds of the seats, it will all hinge on the performance of the minor parties in each bloc. At the moment polling suggests that the various left wing and left-of-centre parties are on course to get a majority of votes. While the gap between the left and right-wing blocs is only a few percentage points, the chances of him retaining power should be less than 50%, which suggests that Paddy Power's quoted odds look poor value.

Recommended

The charts that matter: the dollar extends its fall
Global Economy

The charts that matter: the dollar extends its fall

The US dollar took quite the tumble this week. Here’s how the charts that matter most to the global economy reacted.
17 Apr 2021
Why you should expect another stockmarket crash
Stockmarkets

Why you should expect another stockmarket crash

Many fear inflation, but a deflationary debt collapse is a more likely scenario in the near term, says Tim Lee
16 Apr 2021
What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin

What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

As the bitcoin price hit new highs, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, listed on the stockmarket. John Stepek looks at what that m…
15 Apr 2021
US inflation is rising – but it’s not enough to rattle markets yet
Inflation

US inflation is rising – but it’s not enough to rattle markets yet

The latest US inflation figures showed that consumer prices are rising more rapidly than expected. But markets shrugged. John Stepek asks why, and wha…
14 Apr 2021

Most Popular

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it
Bitcoin

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it

The cryptocurrency’s price has soared far beyond its fundamentals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he looks at how to short bitcoin.
12 Apr 2021
What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin

What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

As the bitcoin price hit new highs, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, listed on the stockmarket. John Stepek looks at what that m…
15 Apr 2021
Properties for sale for around £400,000
Houses for sale

Properties for sale for around £400,000

From a converted church in Banffshire with views towards the Cairngorms National Park, to a period property in the Georgian market town of Beverley, e…
2 Apr 2021