Betting on politics: A congressional fight in Texas

The fight over the Texas 31st district is heating up. Matthew Partridge takes a look at the contenders.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

917-Carter-634

Carter: a strong favourite
(Image credit: © 2012 CQ Roll Call)

I've covered several Senate contests in the forthcoming US midterm elections, as well as the race to be governor of New York. However, up until now I haven't looked at any individual congressional contests because most of the markets on individual races have been too illiquid (one of the drawback s of betting exchanges).

However, the fight over the Texas 31st district is heating up. At the moment £3,705 has been traded on Smarkets, which is quoting 1.55 (64.5%) on Republican John Carter, while his opponent Democrat Mary Hegar is at 2.46 (40.6%).

Hegar, an Air Force veteran, is an unconventional candidate, and her campaign has raised significantly more money than Carter. This has led to speculation that she could stand to benefit from a blue wave in favour of Democrats. Interest has been further spiked by a poll at the end of last month putting her only four points behind Carter.

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However, a Hegar victory still looks very unlikely for several reasons. This is still a strongly Republican district where Trump beat Clinton by 13%. Carter, who has represented the district for nearly 16 years, is also popular, winning with just under 60% of the vote two years ago.

The polling company that predicted a close contest, ALG Research, is a relatively obscure outfit. More recent polls by more established polling companies have Carter with leads ranging from 15%-21%. Given all these factors, I'd recommend you bet on Carter retaining his seat.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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