Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: more US Senate contests

This week, Matthew Partridge weighs the odds on who will win the US Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Mississippi.

906-Stabenow-634
Debbie Stabenow is set for re-election

2017 Getty Images

Last week, we looked at the various Senate contests in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This week we'll turn to Michigan, Texas and Mississippi. Although the liquidity still isn't great, gamblers are starting to wake up, helped by the fact that Smarkets now offers its own alternative markets on each individual contest.

Advertisement - Article continues below

While Michigan memorably went against the Democrats in the 2016 presidential election, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow has a huge lead of up to 20 point over her Republican rival John James in recent polls. So I'd recommend that you take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the Democrats winning.

Texas should be an easy contest to call. It is the quintessential red state, voting for the GOP in every presidential contest since 1976. Changing demographics have given the Democrats hope that this could change, but incumbent senator Ted Cruz remains popular and the polls indicate that he remains on course for a solid victory. I'd therefore take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the GOP winning.

Mississippi has also consistently voted Republican for the last four decades. There are two Senate elections there: the regular election involving Roger Wicker, plus a special election to replace the retiring Thad Cochran. Betfair is offering 1.11 (90.9%) on the GOP winning the regular election. Normally, I'd be reluctant to recommend such short odds, but given that Wicker has a 17-point lead in the one poll conducted so far, I'll advise you to take it.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

Visit/520181/how-the-fear-of-death-affects-your-investment-process
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Visit/520060/the-good-and-the-bad-investments-of-2010s
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Visit/519858/how-long-can-the-good-times-roll
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Visit/516944/why-wall-street-has-got-it-wrong-again
Economy

Why Wall Street has got the US economy wrong again

The hiring slowdown does not signal recession for the US economy. Growth is just moving down a gear, says Brian Pellegrini.
25 Oct 2019

Most Popular

Visit/economy/eu-economy/601422/heres-why-investors-should-care-about-the-eus-plan-to-tackle-covid-19
EU Economy

Here’s why investors should care about the EU’s plan to tackle Covid-19

The EU's €750bn rescue package makes a break-up of the eurozone much less likely. John Stepek explains why the scheme is such a big deal, and what it …
28 May 2020
Visit/investments/commodities/industrial-metals/601401/money-printing-infrastructure-base-metals-copper
Industrial metals

Governments’ money-printing mania bodes well for base metals

Money is being printed like there is no tomorrow. Much of it will be used to pay for infrastructure projects – and that will be good for metals, says …
27 May 2020
Visit/investments/funds/601385/in-support-of-active-fund-management
Funds

In support of active fund management

We’re fans of passive investing here at MoneyWeek. But active fund management has its place too, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
25 May 2020