Features

Betting on politics: more US Senate contests

This week, Matthew Partridge weighs the odds on who will win the US Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Mississippi.

906-Stabenow-634

Debbie Stabenow is set for re-election

Last week, we looked at the various Senate contests in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This week we'll turn to Michigan, Texas and Mississippi. Although the liquidity still isn't great, gamblers are starting to wake up, helped by the fact that Smarkets now offers its own alternative markets on each individual contest.

While Michigan memorably went against the Democrats in the 2016 presidential election, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow has a huge lead of up to 20 point over her Republican rival John James in recent polls. So I'd recommend that you take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the Democrats winning.

Texas should be an easy contest to call. It is the quintessential red state, voting for the GOP in every presidential contest since 1976. Changing demographics have given the Democrats hope that this could change, but incumbent senator Ted Cruz remains popular and the polls indicate that he remains on course for a solid victory. I'd therefore take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the GOP winning.

Mississippi has also consistently voted Republican for the last four decades. There are two Senate elections there: the regular election involving Roger Wicker, plus a special election to replace the retiring Thad Cochran. Betfair is offering 1.11 (90.9%) on the GOP winning the regular election. Normally, I'd be reluctant to recommend such short odds, but given that Wicker has a 17-point lead in the one poll conducted so far, I'll advise you to take it.

Recommended

Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail
US stockmarkets

Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail

New US president Joe Biden is planning to throw trillions of dollars in stimulus at his country’s economy. Markets will love that. But it comes with a…
25 Jan 2021
Beware: inflation is starting to stir in the US
Inflation

Beware: inflation is starting to stir in the US

With US consumer prices up by 1.4% in the last year, concern about inflation is now everywhere.
22 Jan 2021
Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk
Inflation

Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk

With the world’s governments spending money hand over fist, inflation looks certain to take off at some point. But China could change all that. John S…
19 Jan 2021
Forget austerity – governments and central banks have no intention of cutting back
Global Economy

Forget austerity – governments and central banks have no intention of cutting back

Once the pandemic is over will we return to an era of austerity to pay for all the stimulus? Not likely, says John Stepek. The money will continue to …
15 Jan 2021

Most Popular

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks
UK stockmarkets

The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks

The FTSE 100 – the dullest index in the world – is about to reinvent itself as a host of new firms list on the market. The change is long overdue, say…
24 Jan 2021
Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting
Oil

Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting

The huge rise in Tesla’s share price means that, by market value, it’s now the sixth-largest company in the US and and the world’s biggest car-maker. …
25 Jan 2021