Betting on politics: more US Senate contests

This week, Matthew Partridge weighs the odds on who will win the US Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Mississippi.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

906-Stabenow-634

Debbie Stabenow is set for re-election
(Image credit: 2017 Getty Images)

Last week, we looked at the various Senate contests in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This week we'll turn to Michigan, Texas and Mississippi. Although the liquidity still isn't great, gamblers are starting to wake up, helped by the fact that Smarkets now offers its own alternative markets on each individual contest.

While Michigan memorably went against the Democrats in the 2016 presidential election, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow has a huge lead of up to 20 point over her Republican rival John James in recent polls. So I'd recommend that you take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the Democrats winning.

Texas should be an easy contest to call. It is the quintessential red state, voting for the GOP in every presidential contest since 1976. Changing demographics have given the Democrats hope that this could change, but incumbent senator Ted Cruz remains popular and the polls indicate that he remains on course for a solid victory. I'd therefore take Betfair's 1.15 (86.9%) on the GOP winning.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up

Mississippi has also consistently voted Republican for the last four decades. There are two Senate elections there: the regular election involving Roger Wicker, plus a special election to replace the retiring Thad Cochran. Betfair is offering 1.11 (90.9%) on the GOP winning the regular election. Normally, I'd be reluctant to recommend such short odds, but given that Wicker has a 17-point lead in the one poll conducted so far, I'll advise you to take it.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

Latest