Donald Trump's pick for the Supreme Court was bad news for this column, which advised you to back Amul Thapar, Joan Larsen and Allison Eid. We chalk up a loss on that bet and turn to the UK, where there are oddly few ways to play what could be the final stages of Theresa May's time in office. The resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis have convinced Ladbrokes to ditch its popular market on the next minister to leave the cabinet, but there are still options to bet on May's leaving date.
On the exchanges, Betfair has 2.44 (40.9%) on her quitting this year, 2.66 (37.5%) on her departing in 2019, 8.6 (11.6%) on her going in 2020, 13 (7.7%) in 2021 and 7.6 (13.2%) in 2022 or later. But this works out at combined odds of 78.4%, which is close to what I'd estimate as the 80%-85% odds of her quitting by the end of 2019, so I would have to recommend that you look elsewhere.
Interestingly, both Smarkets and Ladbrokes offer sharply differing markets on whether a vote of no confidence against the prime minister will be called in July. While Ladbrokes is offering 2/1 (33.3%) on a no-confidence vote being called, Smarkets is offering 2.92 (34.2%) on a vote not being called.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
This means that you could make money by simultaneously putting money with Ladbrokes on "yes" and Smarkets on "no" for combined odds of (67.7%). Such arbitrage opportunities are very rare, so I'd advise you to grab this one fast, by putting £5.07 on "no" for Smarkets and £4.93 on "yes" for Ladbrokes.
-
What happens if you can’t pay your tax bill, and what is "Time to Pay"?Millions are due to file their tax return this Friday as the self-assessment deadline closes. Though the nightmare is not over until you pay the taxman what you owe - or face a penalty. But what happens if you can't afford to pay HMRC your tax bill, and what is "Time to Pay"?
-
What does Rachel Reeves’s plan for growth mean for UK investors?Rachel Reeves says she is going “further and faster” to kickstart the UK economy, but investors are unlikely to be persuaded
