Betting on politics: the US Supreme Court

Matthew Partridge weighs up the odds on who will be the next judge at the US Supreme Court.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
in Features

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Joan Larsen: a compromise?
(Image credit: 2016 Getty Images)

The best new betting opportunity lies across the Atlantic, where Anthony Kennedy's retirement from the US Supreme Court has given Donald Trump the opportunity to appoint another judge. The shortlist seems to have narrowed down to six main candidates: Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, Amul Thapar, Joan Larsen, Raymond Kethledge and Thomas Hardiman.

Ladbrokes is running a market on the next confirmed justice (ie, they must be confirmed not just nominated). The frontrunners are Barrett at 2/1 (33.3%) and Kavanaugh at 3/1 (25%), with Kethledge and Hardiman at 6/1 each (14.3%), Thapar at 10/1 (9.1%) and Joan Larsen at 12/1 (7.7%).

As usual, there are some more tongue-in-cheek options, such as Trump's longtime political ally Rudy Giuliani at 66/1 (1.5%) and even Trump's daughter Ivanka at 200/1 (0.5%) needless to say these can be ignored.

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The Republicans' slender Senate majority and the upcoming elections mean that Trump has to take political factors into consideration. Barrett's strident views may be too controversial, while Larsen could command broader support. Thapar has the strong support of senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and would be the first Asian justice. Beyond the shortlist, the Allison Eid is an interesting long shot at 25/1. So I'd suggest that you bet on Thapar, Larsen and Eid for combined odds of 20.6%. In this case I'd put £4.41 of a £10 betting unit on Thapar, £3.73 on Larsen and £1.86 on Eid.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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