Betting on politics: A Trump trip to Ireland

There are many zany bets based on Trump antics out there, says Matthew Partridge. But an Irish trip for Trump is one of the more sober and attractive ones.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
in Features

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Could a trip to Ireland by Donald Trump be on the cards?
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un is making all the headlines, but are there any Trump-related novelty bets worth making? While Paddy Power has trimmed the number of political bets, it is still the undisputed leader when it comes to wagers involving "the Donald". Some of the zanier offerings include 100/1 on Trump having his likeness minted on US currency during his term, and you can still get 500/1 on him painting the White House gold (not punts I would recommend).

More seriously, he is now only 8/13 (61%) to win the Nobel Peace Prize. While the deal with Kim has certainly made that a possibility, I wouldn't waste your money since I can't imagine the Nobel committee voting for him, especially given his behaviour during the recent G7 summit.

The 50/1 on him getting a hole-in-one at golf in 2018 seems somewhat more tempting, since he spends so much time on the links. However, the terms of the bet require official White House confirmation, rather than just bragging on Twitter, so I'd pass.

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Instead, I'd go with Paddy Power's 5/6 (54%) on him visiting Ireland during his first term (Paddy Power is also offering the same odds on him not doing so). The Irish leader Leo Varadkar has indicated he would be welcome, and going to Ireland seems almost obligatory for any US president who wants to get re-elected. Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush and Obama all went there in their first terms and George H W Bush visited when he was vice-president.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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