Betting on politics: A Trump trip to Ireland
There are many zany bets based on Trump antics out there, says Matthew Partridge. But an Irish trip for Trump is one of the more sober and attractive ones.
Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un is making all the headlines, but are there any Trump-related novelty bets worth making? While Paddy Power has trimmed the number of political bets, it is still the undisputed leader when it comes to wagers involving "the Donald". Some of the zanier offerings include 100/1 on Trump having his likeness minted on US currency during his term, and you can still get 500/1 on him painting the White House gold (not punts I would recommend).
More seriously, he is now only 8/13 (61%) to win the Nobel Peace Prize. While the deal with Kim has certainly made that a possibility, I wouldn't waste your money since I can't imagine the Nobel committee voting for him, especially given his behaviour during the recent G7 summit.
The 50/1 on him getting a hole-in-one at golf in 2018 seems somewhat more tempting, since he spends so much time on the links. However, the terms of the bet require official White House confirmation, rather than just bragging on Twitter, so I'd pass.
Instead, I'd go with Paddy Power's 5/6 (54%) on him visiting Ireland during his first term (Paddy Power is also offering the same odds on him not doing so). The Irish leader Leo Varadkar has indicated he would be welcome, and going to Ireland seems almost obligatory for any US president who wants to get re-elected. Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush and Obama all went there in their first terms and George H W Bush visited when he was vice-president.