Betting on politics: Italy throws a surprise

My predictions regarding the Italian elections at the weekend went poorly, says Matthew Partridge. But there was better news in Germany.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

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Matteo Renzi's PD were nearly beaten into third place
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

My predictions regarding the Italian elections at the weekend went poorly. The PD were nearly beaten into third place by the League and, while there will be a lot of horsetrading, the League's strong showing means that under the terms of its deal with Forza Italia, it will be in charge of selecting the centre-right's candidate for prime minister, meaning that Antonio Tajani, Berlusconi's preferred choice, is unlikely to get the job.

However, there was better news in Germany where the SPD's membership renewed the party's "grand coalition" deal with Chancellor Angela Merkel. So after several months of haggling, both our bets on Merkel being re-elected chancellor, and of a CDU/CSU+SPD coalition taking power, will finally pay off.

One of the most interesting current betting opportunities is Ladbrokes' book on who will win Political Commentator of the Year at the Press Awards next week. The favourite is Stephen Bush (pictured), for the New Statesman and the i paper, at 5/4 (44%). In second place is Marina Hyde (The Guardian) at 5/2 (28.9%). John Harris (also The Guardian), Rachel Sylvester (The Times) and Katy Balls (i) are each at 6/1 (14.2%). Dan Hodges, for The Mail on Sunday, is priced at 20/1 (4.7%).

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I don't have any insider press knowledge, but from reading their columns over the past year, I think the winners are very likely to be either Bush or Sylvester so I'd bet on both for combined odds of 58.7%. I would split a £10 betting unit, with £7.56 on Bush and £2.44 on Sylvester.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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