Betting on politics: Angela Merkel a shoo-in

There has been an unprecedented number of betting opportunities over the past 15 months, but now we are in a bit of a lull. One of the few interesting bets around is the upcoming German election, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking a fourth election victory. Martin Schulz's decision to swap Brussels for the SPD leadership in January led to some brief speculation that he could pose a serious threat. However, recent local election results suggest that, if anything, Merkel's CDU/CSU has gained ground.

So it's not surprising that Ladbrokes is offering 7/1 (12.5%) on the SPD getting most seats, with Betfred offering 6/1 (14.3%) on Schulz becoming German chancellor. Betfair is even more generous, quoting digital odds of 12.5 (8%) on the Social Democrats coming first. Those who want to bet on Merkel's party can get either 1/12 (92%) from the bookies or 1.08 (93%) from Betfair. The problem is that I think these odds are broadly right, so I don't see any value in taking either side of these bets.

At the other end of the political spectrum we have the Ukip leadership election. Nominations are due to close at the end of the month, with multiple candidates likely. However, the two frontrunners are current deputy leader Peter Whittle and activist Anne Marie Waters. Waters has managed the rare feat of being considered too extreme for the Kippers, as she was barred from being both a GLA and a parliamentary candidate, as well as being denounced by Farage himself. David Kurten is also an interesting long shot who has been endorsed by Ukip mega-donor Aaron Banks.

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I'm therefore tipping both Whittle at 9/4 (30.7%) and David Kurten at 25/1 (3.8%), with Paddy Power, for combined odds of 34.6%. In terms of a hypothetical £10 betting unit, this works out to £8.89 on Etheridge and £1.11 on Kuerten.