Islamic State defeat: a pivotal moment for Iraq

853-Iraqi-634 — Iraq's forces are on the offensive

This week Iraqi troops declared victory over Islamic State (IS) in Mosul. They have now recaptured virtually all of the territory they lost, says the FT's Erika Solomon.

At the same time, the caliphate's capital of Raqqa in Syria "has been surrounded". So "the state' IS claims to govern looks ever closer to its end". But "the biggest challenge may not be defeating IS, but preventing it from rising again". Already, "IS has increased roadside bombs around Mosul and suicide bomb attacks on towns south of the city including on a refugee camp".

IS may have finally lost its foothold in Mosul, but if the government can't provide protection from militias seeking revenge, the recapture of Mosul "could simply set up the next round of Sunni insurgency", warns Jack Watling in The Atlantic. However, "if the government can lure investment and reignite Mosul's local economy, then its liberation could mark a turning point". Iraq therefore stands "at a pivotal moment".

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Ironically, "three years of war against the Islamist extremists created a national sense of urgency which overcame regional, ethnic and sectarian disputes", says The Guardian's Jonathan Steele. Without such an effort, "Iraqis themselves may slip back into fraternal conflict now that their temporary need to unite against IS is almost over".

Two major issues are dividing up oil revenue and possible violence between Sunnis and Shias. The good news is that "most of Iraq's leaders recognise the challenges" and the prime minister "has shown himself to be more sensitive and inclusive than his predecessor".