Betting on politics: The next election

The big question on every political punter's mind is the date of the next general election. At the time of writing the Conservatives are having problems finalising a "supply and confidence" deal with the DUP. This has led to speculation that there could be another election very soon, even this year.

The most obvious historical precedent would be the inconclusive February 1974 election, where Labour were the largest party in terms of seats, but were unable to form a coalition. This led to a second election later that year, which led them to gain a small majority of three seats (although this disappeared three years later).

While there's always an outside chance this could happen, I'd put the probability at less than 10%. Having blown a huge poll lead, Theresa May is hardly likely to go to the country again with Labour in the lead. If she steps down or is deposed, her successor would need time to settle down in office.

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The cynic in me also thinks that the next election will be timed to happen during the university holidays, in order to reduce the student turnout that led to victories in seats such as Canterbury. This would preclude any autumn election. Note also that with the Conservatives still 55 seats ahead of Labour, the gap between the two parties is much bigger than in 1974, when the gap between them was only four seats.

StanJames is offering 1/3 (75%) on an election in 2018 or later. However, I think that the best value comes from laying (betting against) a 2017 election on Betfair. If you're unsure about the exact mechanics, Betfair has a detailed guide to how to go about doing this. The key thing to remember is that when you are laying something you are in effect taking the role of the bookie by offering odds. Since the odds on a 2017 election are 3.6 (27.8%), this is equivalent to making a bet at odds of 1.38 (72%), which is better than StanJames' offer.