Trump’s mood swings will depress stocks

There is little to cushion the impact of Trump’s mood swings on the market, says Andrew Van Sickle. Investors are in for a bumpy few months.

Andrew Van Sickle
By
published
in Features

Since Donald Trump was elected president, US stocks have charged from one new high to the next. Last week, they hit a speed bump. Investors had been looking forward to hearing more about the fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending spree Trump has been promising. Instead, at his press conference, he launched an attack on the pharmaceutical industry, saying it got "away with murder" on prices. Having wiped billions off that sector of the market, he then unsettled the others by failing to flesh out his stimulus plans.

"Pro-growth policy promises need to be delivered to support asset prices at current levels," as ING's Viraj Patel told the Financial Times. More broadly, investors drove up stocks by tuning out the elements of Trump's platform and personality that bode ill. They received a nasty reminder of them last week. Trump remained in campaign mode, haranguing critics and barely addressing his plans. His performance showed investors, who had been charmed by his conciliatory acceptance speech, "how quickly his mood can swing", says Roger Blitz, also in the FT. Trump's threat of tariffs on German cars this week, moreover, has revived fears of protectionism.

Meanwhile, Wall Street can't rely on much of a fillip from earnings or valuations. The former are expected to have grown by just 4% year-on-year in the previous quarter, while the latter are sky-high, implying lacklustre long-term returns. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio is 27, compared to a long-term average of 16. So there is little to cushion the impact of Trump's mood swings on the market. Investors are in for a bumpy few months.

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Andrew Van Sickle
Andrew Van Sickle
Editor, MoneyWeek

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.

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