Will Philippines’ bad boy Rodrigo Duterte dent growth?

The Philippines' new president, Rodrigo Duterte, has "stepped onto the world stage with the swagger of a bad-boy rock star", says Bloomberg.com's David Tweed. He called the head of the United Nations a "fool" and the US president a "son of a whore". Barack Obama had expressed concern about the surge in extrajudicial killings that Duterte has encouraged as part of a crackdown on drugs. Around 3,000 suspected drug dealers have been dispatched by police and unknown assailants since Duterte was elected in May, says The Economist "without even a nod at due process".

"Duterte is going to be a constant source of uncertainty and instability in terms of our understanding of the Philippines and where it is going," Malcolm Davis of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute told Bloomberg.com. The question is what he might do to the economy, which has become a regional star in recent years. It has carved out a niche for itself in global services, such as business process outsourcing, and gradually improved the business environment to the extent that investment growth hit 28% year-on-year in the second quarter. GDP grew by 7% between April and May, while inflation is under 2%.Duterte promised to delegate economic management to advisers, and their plan looks sensible enough, says The Economist.

It concentrates on keeping the macroeconomy steady and improving infrastructure. But while Duterte probably won't choke the economy to death with capricious micromanagement, he is rattling investors and undermining confidence. August saw foreign investors withdraw a net $33.5bn from Philippine stocks. Businesses are worried that in this lawless atmosphere, the police could turn on a particular firm or industry with Duterte's approval. He has already singled out the chairman of an online-gambling firm as someone with excessive political influence. Investors will be keeping an extremely close eye on Duterte in the next few months.

Article continues below

Try 6 free issues of MoneyWeek today

Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.

Start your trial

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter