Where is the housing crash?

Back in May 2004, MoneyWeek economist James Ferguson predicted a housing crash. Since then, the annual rate of house price growth has fallen dramatically - but a full-scale crash has yet to materialise. So will a flat market be as bad as it gets - or are there harder times ahead?

Regular readers of MoneyWeek might remember that I've been warning about an impending housing slowdown in the UK since my first article on the subject appeared in May 2004.

By most measures, the year-on-year rate of house-price appreciation peaked the following month, in June 2004. Since then, house price growth has headed south but has only ever gone into negative territory in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Most housing bears have got bored, hung up their spurs and gone away.

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James Ferguson qualified with an MA (Hons) in economics from Edinburgh University in 1985. For the last 21 years he has had a high-powered career in institutional stock broking, specialising in equities, working for Nomura, Robert Fleming, SBC Warburg, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein and Mitsubishi Securities.