What will trigger the fall in house prices?

UK house prices are still in a bubble. But if it is to burst, there must be a trigger. Merryn Somerset Webb looks at what that might be, and reflects on what could well be the worst financial decision she has ever made.

We've just bought a house. It is exactly the kind of house we have long wanted to live in, so we are thrilled. But I am also pretty sure that, while buying it might be a good thing for family stability, it will also be the worst financial decision we have ever made.

You don't need to know that the average house price is still well over five times the average income or that the average first-time buyer was forced to put down a deposit of £50,000 in March, or even that more than 80% of adults under 30 are unable to afford to buy any kind of house in the UK, according to the National Housing Federation to know that house prices are still in bubble territory. Instead, you just need to look in an estate agent's window. That usually does it.

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Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.