What If Online Poker's Just a Fad?
PartyGaming's IPO - at Moneyweek.com - the best of the international media
Not even the barrage of negative press about the world's biggest online poker group PartyGaming could prevent it from starting to trade some 9% above its flotation price.
The float which raised £907m for the group means that PartyGaming is now valued at more than £4.64bn: that's sufficient to cover its books more than twice over. And it also means that PartyGaming will be launched straight into the FTSE 100 after the next index reassessment meeting in September.
So just how good an investment is PartyGaming? For all the risks involved, there are ultimately only two things that matter, says John Foley on Breakingviews.com. Firstly, whether online poker is legal, and secondly, whether it is merely a fad.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The question of PartyGaming's legality is already "adequately reflected" in its valuation, says Foley. As it is, its shares trade at a big discount to online groups such as eBay, and PartyGaming should succeed growing its earnings by over 30% a year, despite carrying a market multiple of only 13.
Whether online poker is merely a fad is a more serious question. The group makes its money purely from online poker, mostly in the US unlike sites like Sportingbet, which also offers sports betting amongst others. Yet with online poker "currently enjoying phenomenal growth rates", even if PartyGaming were to get just half the 44% growth predicted for the market per year for the next four years, it would still be good.
But there are snags, says Lex in the FT. With so many users, there is the possibility that a number of online poker rooms will start popping up, which in turn would drive down margins. If anything, PartyGaming has helped to enlarge the category, while "network effects appear too weak" to put the competition out of business. So many money-making machines will no doubt catch the eye of tax authorities and regulators.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow
MoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraud
Property tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
By Jane Lewis Published