Guru watch: US heads for recession

published 26 July 2011

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff was among the few to warn that America faced a nasty recession and a disappointing recovery from the credit bust. Now he reckons America is heading for another downturn.

"Post-bubble deleveragings are a multi-year adjustment process," he says. As the economy concentrates on paying down debt, growth is stunted and vulnerable to setbacks. Consumers, who account for around 70% of the economy, have just begun the long process of paying down their debt, which implies subdued spending. That has been going on for some time, but a new problem is that the fiscal stimulus has dwindled and looks set to be replaced with austerity.

Unemployment bottomed in March. Real disposable incomes, manufacturing output and the household survey of employment all peaked at the same time. "Something tells me we are very close to a recessionary outcome here." So the outlook for stocks, hitherto bolstered by strong profits, is darkening. "I don't think [equities] can stay divorced from the economy indefinitely."