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Should you follow Bob Diamond and invest in Africa?
The ex-chief of Barclays is putting his money into Africa. And he's not the only one. Ed Bowsher looks at the continent's prospects, and picks some of the best ways to invest.
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However, we are now seeing some real diversification, and that means that Africa is about much more than just mining. Most importantly, incomes in several countries are rising fast.
For example, in Nigeria, average income per head has quadrupled since 2000. That's led to the emergence of a substantial African middle class who have enough cash to buy consumer goods as well as apply for modern banking products such as credit cards.
Indeed, according to one definition, 30% of Africa's billion-strong population is now middle class.'
The demographics also look very promising. Currently, more than half of the population is under 20. Africa is expected to have a larger working-age population than China by 2043.
So while the African middle class should continue to grow, there's also plenty of scope for Africa to become the last large low-wage economy in the world.
As China gets richer and older, and wages rise, I suspect that some manufacturing will move to Africa. Remember that Africa is also a lot closer to Europe than China and Southeast Asia are. In an era of high energy prices, and thus transport costs, that could eventually be a real advantage.
What's more, Africa is starting from a low base, so there's plenty of potential to achieve fast growth from here. Indeed Mark Mobius, the best-known emerging-markets fund manager, reckons the African economy should grow at a rate of 7% a year for the next 20 years.
He reckons there are long-term opportunities in IT and solar power, as well as any industries related to the rising power of the consumer. That includes banking, telecoms, food and beverages.
The governance of many African businesses is also improving many larger companies are now compliant with the global IFRS accounting standard. Some African governments have also become more effective.
Let's not forget improving infrastructure, either. A correspondent with The Economist recently travelled 600 miles across Tanzania, and at no point did he experience any problems with his mobile phone signal.
It's not all rapid growth and optimism
On another front, if climate change proves as serious as some observers suggest, then Africa will probably suffer more than most regions. What's more, unreliable power and water are another significant problem that is holding back some businesses.
Even if you invest in successful companies, you may get caught out by currency movements. The South African rand has been pretty volatile over the last ten years. On top of that, there's the issue of liquidity.
Most African stock markets are small. Emerging-markets specialist Ashmore says that the value of investable companies outside Africa is just $250bn, smaller than the Danish stock market.
Because most African stock markets are so small, a large investor can trigger big share price falls if it tries to exit a particular stock. This lack of liquidity was one reason why New Star shut its Heart of Africa fund in 2009, just 15 months after the fund was launched.
Given this liquidity issue, any investment in Africa has to be for the long-term.
Diamond's got a point though
Just remember that the risk here is high. So if you're tempted to invest in Africa, keep it to a sensible proportion of your portfolio.
I'd also suggest that you don't invest via an ETF (exchange traded fund.) I'm normally a fan of such passive funds, but in a region like Africa where markets are small and liquidity is poor, I think there are good opportunities for good, old-fashioned stock pickers.
My favourite African investment fund is the Renaissance Pan-African fund, which is managed by a highly-regarded manager called Sven Richter. He worked with Mark Mobius at Franklin Templeton for many years and has delivered strong performance in recent years.
However, the big downside is that the fund has a 2% annual charge.
You could reduce the risk somewhat by going for a fund that doesn't just invest in Africa. The Fidelity Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa fund has grown 140% over the last five years and its manager, Nick Price, has a Citywire AA' rating.
The annual management charge is 1.5%. Currently 45% of the fund's assets are in Africa, so you're getting some decent African exposure without going all in.
Britain's economy needs all the immigrants it can get
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Ed has been a private investor since the mid-90s and has worked as a financial journalist since 2000. He's been employed by several investment websites including Citywire, breakingviews and The Motley Fool, where he was UK editor.
Ed mainly invests in technology shares, pharmaceuticals and smaller companies. He's also a big fan of investment trusts.
Away from work, Ed is a keen theatre goer and loves all things Canadian.
