Gold price predictions - where next?

Both silver and the gold are making impressive progress, but can the good times continue? James Turk looks at predictions for the gold price.

It has been my contention that the $604.90 low reached on January 5th was a selling climax. (See: Gold reaches a major turning point.)

It has now been more than one month since the January 5th low, and the performance by both gold and silver has been impressive. Gold has climbed $62.60, or 10.3%.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up

Silver has done even better, climbing $1.75, or 14.4%.

The following charts speak for themselves.

Both gold and silver are showing impressive technical strength, but as I have been commenting in previous alerts, silver is doing even better than gold. Silver's outperformance can be seen in the following chart of their ratio. A declining ratio means that silver is outperforming gold.

See our section on investing in gold for a full list of articles on everything from bullion tomining stocks, coins and more, including our recent cover story: Why you should hang on to your gold

The evidence is building that January 5th was indeed a selling climax. There are of course never any certainties when it comes to markets, but as the days go by, the probability improves that $604.90 marks an important low. If so, then gold will never again go back below $600, just like I expect that it will never again go back below $500 (which I consider to be a 75% probability), or $100 (a 98% probability) or fall to $35 (a 99.99% probability).

The $35 rate of exchange to the dollar ended with President Nixon's decision to abandon the gold standard, creating the fiat currency we have today, which brings to mind another probability. Monetary history shows that no fiat currency has ever survived, which suggests a 100% probability that the dollar eventually will be destroyed. But as I note above, nothing in the world is certain. Maybe 'Helicopter' Ben and his cohorts at the Fed will make history, and the dollar will prove to be the exception to the rule and become the only fiat currency that survives. But if you don't like the long odds of that outcome, buy gold instead.

James Turk is the Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney.com.He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar

.