UKIP pledge alarms Tories

Multi-millionaire Paul Sykes has said that he will "do whatever it takes" to make sure that UKIP gets the most votes in the 2014 European elections. In practice, this means that he will make a substantial donation to Nigel Farage's party, covering their advertising expenditure. The pledge "will alarm many Tory MPs who fear that Farage is heading for victory next May", says The Guardian. Success there gives UKIP "a strong base for a breakthrough in the 2015 general election".

For the Conservatives, "Sykes is not a new problem, more of a recurring headache", says Sebastian Payne in The Spectator. He was originally a Conservative donor in the 1980s and early 1990s, but he "left the party following the Maastricht Treaty" and focused on funding anti-EU groups and campaigns instead. However, ironically his latest move may end up backfiring. "By aiding an anti-Tory sentiment, Sykes will simply increase the likelihood of the Europhile Labour Party gaining power."

However, Europe may not be the only issue driving Paul Sykes, says John McDermott in the FT. The real story with UKIP is how the growth in their support may be bound up with opposition to immigration as much as opposition to the European Union. Note that, as well as criticising Brussels, Sykes "targets his ire on immigration from Romania and Bulgaria". Perhaps surprisingly, this means that "Mr Farage's outfit is not only a threat to the Conservatives but also to the Labour party", he argues.

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Electoral arithmetic makes that unlikely, says Philip Johnston in The Daily Telegraph. "Even if, as the party's leaders aver, it is taking votes equally from Labour, this is unlikely to deny Ed Miliband any seats". Conversely, a number of Tory seats are vulnerable to a UKIP showing of around 7% or 8%. Indeed, they may have already had a significant effect at the last election. "In 2010, there were 21 seats where the Tories came second and the UKIP vote was greater than the winning party's majority."