Wednesday preview: Antofagasta, Serco, 888, Paddy Power
Chilean copper miner Antofagasta must have been thanking its lucky starts it operates in South America rather than South Africa, given the trials and tribulations the likes of sector peers Lonmin and Aquarius Platinum have been suffering lately.
Chilean copper miner Antofagasta must have been thanking its lucky starts it operates in South America rather than South Africa, given the trials and tribulations the likes of sector peers Lonmin and Aquarius Platinum have been suffering lately.
The group already updated the market at the beginning of August with its production and cash costs numbers, so the focus will be on earnings.
Credit Suisse is forecasting half-year earnings per share of 63 cents, versus a market consensus forecast of 65 cents and a first-half of 2011 number of 71 cents. The projected year-on-year decline is largely down to lower copper prices, although this will have been offset some by improved copper production levels.
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Credit Suisse expects the firm's new Chief Executive Officer, Diego Hernandez, to present his master-plan for the group, "which over time will need to include project phasing, funding strategy and value proposition of new projects."
Updates from out-sourcers have been coming thick and fast over the last week and on Wednesday Serco weighs in with its interims.
"On the face of it Serco's H1 [first half] results should not be flattering, but we believe the reasons for this have already been well flagged with the underlying growth/margin story firmly intact. We remain fans of the business and continue to believe the company is well placed to benefit from increased outsourcing activity in the UK market," said Panmure Gordon.
The broker is forecasting revenues of £2,330.5m, up 3.8% year-on-year but with the improvement entirely due to new acquisitions; on a like-for-like basis, the broker thinks sales will have shrunk by 2%.
Panmure Gordon predicts the underlying earnings before interest, tax and amortisation will be down 7.0% year-on-year (yoy) to £124.4m, while underlying profit before tax is seen tumbling 19.6% to £99.4m. "The anticipated YOY drop in EBITA should be purely driven by the £15m re-structuring charge taken above the line as indicated with underlying margin growth progressing as flagged (we anticipate these to be 6.3% vs. 6.0% last year ex re-structuring)," the broker said.
Despite the fall in profits, Panmure Gordon thinks the interim dividend will be lifted to 2.8p from 2.5p.
Peel Hunt thinks online gaming firm 888's interim results will show growth over the first half of 2011 but the second half of the year is likely to be more challenging, "given the investment in newly regulated markets and the potential disruption of the Olympics."
The same broker is also expecting Irish bookie Paddy Power to serve up impressive results on Wednesday. Australia and the online business are once again likely to be the main drivers, the broker thinks, and given the recently reported experience of Ladbrokes there may even be signs of recovery in the bookie's home market of Ireland.
"The cash pile is growing and there is likely to be an increasing interest in what the group intends to do with this," Peel Hunt suggests.
Switching to the economy, Norway gets a rare spell in the spotlight as Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, announces its base rate decision.
Both Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse think the Norges Bank will stand pat.
"We expect the Norges Bank to stay on hold on Wednesday and to balance the fairly strong domestic economy and the continuing high uncertainty and weakness abroad," Credit Suisse said.
INTERIMS
21st Century Technology, 888 Holdings, Antofagasta, Chime Communications, Corin Group, DP World Limited, Grafton Group Units, Hansteen Holdings, IQE, OJSC Pharmstandard GDR (Reg S), Paddy Power, Serco Group, Zhaikmunai LP GDR (Reg S)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Arden Partners
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd., African Barrick Gold , Croda International, Devro, Downing Income VCT 3 E Shs, Ferrexpo, Glencore International, Henderson Group, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hochschild Mining, Kingspan Group, Lancashire Holdings, Legal & General Group, Low & Bonar, LPA Group, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, Robinson, Rotork, Wood Group (John), Xstrata
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di), Premier Energy & Water Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd, Schlumberger Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Beige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
FINALS
Mattioli Woods
AGMS
Coral Products, Green Compliance, Ingenious Media Active Capital Ltd.
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Bloomsbury Publishing, City of London Group, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Downing Distribution VCT 1, Downing Income VCT 3, ECO Animal Health Group, Falkland Islands Holdings, Fletcher King, Micro Focus International, NCC Group, Park Group, Rank Group, Stagecoach Group
JH
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