When David Cameron promised a referendum on British membership of the European Union, it looked like one of those easy pledges politicians make when there is little risk of having to carry them out.
The government was behind in the polls, the economy stuck in permanent recession, and the coalition coming apart at the seams. The chances of Cameron being PM for a second term, the time when this voting would take place, looked remote.
But now the picture is changing. With the polls narrowing, the economy more upbeat, and the two Eds, Miliband and Balls, looking less credible all the time, Cameron may well win a second term, even if he has to rely on the Liberal Democrats again for support. If so, it will be hard to wriggle out of his promise.
Try 6 free issues of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Start your trial
Sign up for MoneyWeek’s free twice-daily newsletter.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
A vote on EU membership now looks likely, either in 2016 or 2017. Already big business lobby groups are gearing up for a strong yes' vote campaign. On taking office as the new Confederation of British Industry (CBI) president, Sir Michael Rake argued that EU membership was still vital for British business and "overwhelmingly" in the UK's economic interests.
Latest Videos FromMoneyWeek
Meanwhile, pro-EU lobby group, Business for a New Europe, published a report signed by leading FTSE chief executives including Pearson CEO John Fallon and David Tyler, chairman of Sainsbury's arguing that leaving the EU would be catastrophic for the economy.
As the vote gets closer, we can expect to hear more FTSE chief executives making the same point. Major foreign manufacturers will argue just as forcefully that EU membership, and access to the single market, are the only reasons they are here. The Japanese, who make a huge number of cars in Britain, have already made that point.
When people do finally go to the polls, the message will be rammed home that while they may not like the EU or its meddlesome rules much, their jobs depend on it. However, it is important to watch what business does rather than just what it says. And the investment figures suggest business is not nearly as keen on Europe as it says it is.
There is no better way of showing your long-term commitment to an economic region than by making an investment there either by building factories or making acquisitions. It takes time and a lot of patient effort to earn a return on that money and you have to believe the country will be a good place to do business over many years.
But strangely enough, British business invests very little in Europe. According to figures dug up by the (admittedly eurosceptic) MP John Redwood, total British investment in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, is just £20bn. In Italy, the third-largest economy once Britain is excluded, it only amounts to £11bn.
In America, by contrast, the total investment is £210bn. Our companies have sunk £40bn into Hong Kong and China, and £37bn into Australia. Indeed, British firms have invested £27bn in Canada, two and a half times the total invested in Italy.
Of course, that is not a political decision. No one is boycotting the EU. Firms simply look at the combination of low growth, suffocating taxes, and mountains of regulation in most EU countries, and decide to give it miss. There is better money to be made elsewhere.
Even the pro-EU lobby group luminaries aren't putting their shareholders' cash where their mouths are. Rake, as well as chairing the CBI, is chairman of BT. While the telecoms giant is spending a lot of money challenging Sky in the pay-TV market, it is hardly storming into Europe. Out of its 89,000 staff, it has just 1,300 in Germany, according to its website, serving its multinational clients. That is not a big commitment.
Pearson has been pouring money into its US education business, but sold its interest in FT Deutschland, the German version of the British newspaper. Europe accounts for just 22% of sales, compared with 59% for America. If there are Sainsbury's branches in France or Spain, I must have missed them. It did have a booze cruise store in Calais selling wine to British shoppers, but closed it down in 2010, describing it as economically unviable'.
Except for Vodafone, British firms seem reluctant to expand into continental Europe. The mobile giant has built a powerful presence there, with big investments in Germany and Spain, but is now facing collapsing sales, particularly in recession-hit southern Europe. It probably wishes it had gone elsewhere.
True, Britain exports a lot to the rest of Europe. It is hard not to when the world's biggest economic region is on your doorstep. And foreign investment in Britain is often attracted by EU membership although factories these days are more likely to be built in Poland or Hungary than in Sunderland. But to suggest that Britain depends on Europe for its prosperity is nonsense.
Plenty of FTSE chief executives will argue for continued British membership, especially once the referendum draws closer. That is only because leaving the EU would be a big risk. Big business will always support the status quo. If they really believed in it, they would vote with hard cash: the fact they don't tells you what they really think.
