Jim Rogers, who toured the world on a motorbike and co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, is one of the world's most outspoken investors. He also tends to call the big trends correctly: he became keen on commodities when the long-term upswing in raw materials began at the turn of the century, and short-sold equity sectors propelled by the American housing bubble a few years before it burst.
As an investor who has long been sceptical of central-bank money-printing and worried about inflation, he's still keen on gold for the long term. It is due a correction after rising for 12 years on the trot, he says, "which is terribly unusual for any asset. I expect gold to go down 50% from its peak." That implies a price of around $900. Rogers isn't selling gold and plans to add to his holdings once it's cheaper. It could take two years for gold to bottom, but "by the end of this decade, it will be much higher".
For now, however, a far more rewarding investment idea is agriculture. "The world is facing a serious demographic and production problem," he told the FT's Elaine Moore. "If something doesn't change then we won't have food at any price." Production can't keep pace with demand, inventories are at historic lows, and there aren't enough farmers. People in the profession are "dying out or retiring". More Americans study public relations than agriculture, notes Rogers. Given this backdrop, "farming is going to be one of the most exciting professions in the next 20 years".
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He's especially keen on sugar now that prices have fallen so far from their peak. Rogers has bought publicly traded farms in Australia, Indonesia and Africa, but "there are lots of ways" into this theme, including investing in "tractors and fertilisers and seeds", which is also MoneyWeek's approach to agricultural investing.
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