Afren confident about 2012 production, but shares are off - UPDATE

Afren's 2011 average production rate was held back by a longer-than-anticipated period of facilities related downtime at the Ebok field in Nigeria, but the firm remains bullish about its production prospects in 2012.

By MoneyWeek

published 23 January 2012

in Features

The downtime was "due in part to safety requirements as a result of managing simultaneous production and drilling operations and commissioning work associated with the production processing equipment and power generation facilities."

MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Meanwhile, the exit rate hit 53,200boepd in the fourth quarter and Afren expects to reach an average production rate of between 42,000boepd and 46,000boepd in 2012. However, that is less than the 55,400 of "net working interest production" at which it ended 2011, as announced on January 3rd and as some observers are pointing out.

The company now expects its Barda Rash field in Kurdistan to start pumping oil in August.

Meanwhile, the firm's 2P (proven and probable) and 2C (contingent) resources have increased by 650% due to the acquisition of two interests in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. 2P and 2C resources have risen from 136 million barrels of oil equivalents (mmboe) to 1,026mmboe at a cost of $0.66 per 2C barrel.

Group revenues in 2011 are expected to be $600m, up from $319 the year before, due to increased production and higher realised commodity prices. Meanwhile, the group's oil inventory stood at $37m by December 31st, compared with $14.2m at the same time last year. This represents 800,000 barrels net to Afren.

Net debt grew from $127.5m to $548m over the year, while cash increased from $140.2m to $292m.

Last week, Afren confirmed a "significant" new off-shore oil find just two kilometres east of its main site in Nigeria in the Okoro field; the firm said it had found 549 ft net oil pay in excellent quality reservoir sands.

According to Chief Executive Osman Shahenshah, "We have started our 2012 exploration campaign with a significant discovery offshore Nigeria, through the Okoro East Exploration well.The multi well drilling campaign in Ghana, Nigeria, the Joint Development Zone of Nigeria So Tom and Prncipe, Tanzania, Kenya and the Kurdistan region of Iraq, has the potential to materially transform and increase our discovered resource base."

As of 10:08am shares of Afren are falling by 5.9% to 117.2p.

MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.